Wednesday, October 13, 2010

The joys of low volatility

Let’s say you’re a video poker player who normally plays moderately to highly volatile games, such double double bonus or “not so ugly” deuces at $1 or higher. Let’s assume further that you’ve run into a rough patch and are concerned about your dwindling bankroll. You know that if things continue to go south, you’re going to have to drop down in denomination, and you don’t want to do that.

That was the situation I was in a few months ago and I decided to take a different tack, which worked out well for me. I usually play NSU, “pseudo” NSU, double bonus deuces wild and loose deuce deuces wild at $1, sometimes on triple play machines.

As I wrote on this blog, a while ago I took the plunge and started playing what for me was a new game, jacks or better. The game has a lower long-term maximum payback than some of the other games I was playing, but it has the advantage of very low volatility. That means the fluctuations in amounts won and lost are relatively small. Unless you hit a royal flush, you’re generally not going to win much when you win, but compared with most other games you’re not going to lose much when you lose.

The downside to jacks is that the maximum long-term payback to the player is less than for the games I usually play (except for “pseudo,” but I play that mostly on progressives, when the jackpot adds significantly to the player’s return). But I found that because of the low volatility of jacks, I could comfortably play it at $2. My plan was to do just that, particularly when a good point multiplier would bring the return to about 100 percent. My hope was to hit a royal for $8,000, twice the amount I would get playing for $1, and solve my problem in one fell swoop.

Well, it worked! A few weeks, if that, into the “plan,” I hit for $8,000, bringing my bankroll most of the way back to where I wanted it to be. A few weeks later, I hit again, this time holding only two cards. Coincidentally, both of the big royals were in diamonds, my new favorite suit.

This was somewhat of a gamble, because you can lose quite a bit of money playing even jacks for $2. But it worked this time, and I have kept $2 jacks in my repertoire, playing it when point multipliers and/or other considerations make it a break-even play or better.

Another low volatility play I like: South Point has 50-play machines with NSU deuces in nickels in front of the oyster bar. (There are also 100-play machines with this game elsewhere in the casino). This is by far the best pay table I have seen anywhere on 50- or 100-plays; in fact, it’s the only playable pay table I’ve seen on these machines anywhere.

The bad news about this game is, if you hit the deuces, it’s $50. A royal flush without deuces is $200. The good news is that losses tend to be similarly small, especially considering the huge amount of money you’re putting through (which means you're earning lots of slot club points, particularly on point multiplier days). I can’t remember ever losing more than $500 in a session, and I usually play for at least an hour. On the other hand, you’re not likely to win a lot, unless you are dealt the deuces ($2,500) or a royal flush ($10,000). But if you’re more of a tortoise than a hare, this can be a very good game.

My favorite Vegas sign

This sign directing motorists to the Asian-American Cultural Center stands directly in front of the Gold Coast  casino (above right) on the north side of Flamingo Road a little west of Interstate 15. The arrow can be seen as pointing into the Gold Coast, though it actually directs drivers to turn onto Wynn Drive, which forms the western border of the Gold Coast property.

What’s great about this sign is that the Gold Coast, the favorite casino of local Asian players, does function as sort of a cultural center, in that gambling is very important in East Asian societies. The Gold Coast has two excellent Chinese restaurants, Ping Pang Pong and the Noodle Exchange, and is always full of Asian  players. It has a massive table games area for a casino its size to accommodate the Asian players’ interest in baccarat as well as other table games.

Below is another sign, this one behind the Gold Coast off Valley View. It’s all in Chinese except for one word -- comps. It’s hard to believe there’s no Chinese equivalent, but there you have it. If anyone can translate the rest of the sign, I’d love to know what it says.

The Gold Coast is the nearest casino to Las Vegas’ linear, strip-mall Chinatown, which runs west from Valley View along Spring Mountain Road, a few blocks north of the Gold Coast. Two other locals’ casinos popular with Asian players are Palace Station, on Sahara Avenue just west of I-15, and the Orleans, on Tropicana a little farther west of I-15. Like the Gold Coast, the Orleans is part of the Coast chain owned by Boyd Gaming.

Mailer mystery solved

For several months my wife and I have played at a particular locals’ casino that offers 16/10 “not so ugly” deuces as well as a relatively obscure game that my wife plays and that pays back slightly more in the long run with perfect play than NSU. With point multipliers and other considerations, both these games can be positive for skilled players.

I was playing the NSU deuces exclusively, and she was playing the other game (I’m intentionally omitting details to avoid tipping off the casino to what has become an advantage play for us and apparently at least one other person). If anyone was playing more money through, it was me.

A couple of months ago she got a mailer from this casino that made our eyes bug out -- three $40 dining credits, $45 in free play several times a month, entry in a slot tournament, two free room nights. I got $5 in free play twice a month and a coupon for $2 off the buffet.

We couldn’t figure out why she was getting so much more until I realized that the games we were playing were on different machines. The machines with NSU also have other relatively good games on them, such as 9/6 jacks or better. The machines with the game she plays have a bunch of obscure games on them. I haven’t looked up the pay tables, but I assume they are not very good for the players. Also, this casino has a different version of the game my wife that pays back less to the players. It is on machines near the ones she plays.

According to the video poker author and teacher Bob Dancer, NSU deuces has become a favorite of players who make a living off the casinos. With point multipliers and other considerations, the game has a positive payback for skilled players, and the casinos obviously know this is a good game and one that can cost them money. I was being “punished” (by not being rewarded nearly as much as my wife) for playing this game.

But she was playing a game that actually returns more money to the player. I finally realized that the casino must be mistaken about the value of her game. We figured this casino groups games with similar paybacks on the same machines, and gives them all the same value for marketing purposes.  Perhaps the casino thinks the game on the machines my wife plays is the inferior version; perhaps whoever set the machines up just didn’t know how good this game is.

At any rate, my wife appears to be benefiting from some kind of casino error. I have started playing her game at this casino and stopped playing the NSU deuces. I am looking forward to getting a much better mailer from this casino.

Incidentally, I knew my thinking was on the right track when, on a recent visit to this casino, I saw Dancer playing on the bank of machines that my wife (and now I) play there. I unobtrusively walked behind him to see what game he was playing and, sure enough, it was the same one my wife plays.

Mystery solved!

Saturday, October 9, 2010

A suprising development at the Las Vegas Hilton

First, a little background. Traditionally the game of blackjack is based on a payout of 3-to-2 for a player's two first cards of ace, ten (unless the dealer also has ace, ten). Such a hand is called a blackjack, indicating its singificance to the game.

A few years ago someone, probably an MBA, got the idea that you could pay less -- 6-to-5 -- for blackjack if you give players something in return for the lower payout. At first, that something was a single-deck game, which had disappeared from most casinos because it was too advantageous to good players.

More recently the 6-to-5 payout has spread to shoe games and games with rules that are less advantageous to the playes. In some cases the tradoff was entertainment, often in the form of sexy young women dealing and/or dancing. This was the case at the Las Vegas Hilton, which in the past few months installed a large pit with stages inside for young women to dance on. On recent visits I saw lots of players at these tables, which were all 6-to-5 games, some shoes, with minimums as high as $25. The players seemed happy and the money surely must have been rolling in.

Some imagine my surprise the other day when I walked through the main casino at the Hilton and saw empty carpet where the party pit had been. I decided to ask a floorman at the remaining pit what had happened. Surely, I said, the party pit was making money. Yes, he said, but many of the hotel's older customers didn't like it, and the casino decided to get rid of it.

I'm not sure exactly what to think of this development. I'm not a big fan of the party pits and would never play a blackjack game that pays 6-to-5. But I suspect that the bad games in casino subsidize the good ones, and I'm worried about what the Hilton might do to make up for the lost revenue.

I also don't know whether the Hilton did the right thing in respect to the customers who didn't like the party pit, or just made a business decision.

Whatever the motive behind it, the decision leaves a big hole on the Hilton's casino floor. I'll be interested to see what fills it.