Saturday, March 19, 2016

Poetic license

The other day I saw this on a license plate: AKQJ10. That's a royal flush. Another one I see from time to time: 21 I WIN. Pretty clever.

Our prediction addiction

Over the years I have occasionally thought about what's behind the lure of gambling.

There can be no doubt that gambling is basic human urge, as evidenced by the numbers of people in casinos, betting online and participating in office football pools and kitchen table poker games.

My one college psychology course taught that behavior that is reinforced is repeated. Wins reinforce gambling behavior. Video poker and old-fashioned slot machines show "wins" that are just a return of the player's bet; newer penny slots go a step further, showing as a win any money returned on a spin, even if it's less than the amount wagered.

It's been reported that, to addicted gamblers, "near misses" on slot machines -- 7, 7 on the payline, then a 7 just above or below it -- are as reinforcing as actual wins.

I recently heard an interviewer with a slot game designer, who said players of today's machines are looking for "entertainment and escape." Sounds reasonable to me, based on the mesmermized masses I see every day, drinks and cigarettes at hand as they gaze blankly into their screens.

Lately it's occurred to me that our need to gamble might be tied in with another basic need. Following the elections, I've been struck by how much time the media spend on trying to predict the outcomes of elections. Analysts opine on the air constantly; polls are taken and released almost daily. All this effort to come up with a predictions that mean nothing until they are dashed or confirmed by the actual election!

The media's focus is the same in sports and entertainment coverage. Who will win the Super Bowl? Which movie will get the Oscar for best picture? The game will be played, the awards handed out. But we can't wait.

Some of this, I think, is ego. If I can predict correctly, especially is my position is unpopular, I must be pretty smart. And if you predict incorrectly, you aren't as smart as I am. But more than just ego seems to be involved. We just want to know, before we really can know.

Much of gambling is involves predicting. Which horse will win the race? Will the roulette ball land on a red space or a black one? Will the shooter make his point or seven out? Even that most passive of gamblers, the slot player, must decide when to play and select a machine presumably with a prediction (or at least a hope) of a winning session in mind.

Gambling, like many of our other obsessions, is about the future and our compulsion to know it before it arrives.