Differences between gambling and real life

In real life, if something happens again and again, we assume it's going to keep happening, and almost always we're right. The sun came up in the morning two days ago, yesterday and today. We can be all but certain it will come up tomorrow.

In gambling, that's often not the case. In blackjack, we can hit 16 against the dealer's 10 and bust, and do it again and bust, and do it again and bust. Yet the right play, for a non-card counter, is to do it every time. In the long run, the player will come out very slightly ahead by always hitting the 16.

Why can't we learn from the experience of hitting the 16 and busting again and again? Basically because gambling is governed by the mathematics of random events, not by the laws of nature.

The first thing we must understand is the meaning of "random." Many people seem to think that random means scattered all over the place, without any pattern. Not necessarily. Random outcomes can include significant streaks or bunching of results.

So even though hitting the 16 will produce enough positive results to make it worthwhile, it can -- and will -- result in the player busting two, threee, four and more times consecutively. It seems to be stupid to continue such a futile move, but the mathematics of gambling asserts itself over thousands and thousands of trials, not over half a dozen hands of blackjack.

As a result of not understanding this principle, gamblers often try to get a different result by making changes that cannot affect the outcome of the game or can affect it only negatively.

An acqaintance of mine, a video poker player, does this by pulling or inserting her player's card when things are going bad, by swtiching games and/or denomination played, and by changing the number of coins she bets. (One time I saw her hit a royal on a less-than-full-coin bet, which cost her a lot of money and some embarrassment.)

Here's why these things don't work: The part of the machine that deals the cards doesn't know if a player's card is inserted or not. By not using your player's card every time you play on a machine, you're just denying yourself comps and other casino marketing benefits. Switching games or denominations isn't going to alter your long-term results. You should always play what for you is the best game available at the denomination that best fits your bankroll. Given the promotions available on a particular day, there is usually only one game and one denomination that will give a particular player the best long-term results. And, there is almost never a good reason to bet less than the maximum on video poker, because of the huge penalty on a royal hit with less than maximum coin. And again, the part of the machine that deals the cards has no idea how many coins have been bet.

Another way in which gambling differs from most other aspects of life is the relationship between effort and result. In gambling, practice and study do pay off, but only in a long run measured in months or years. An expert video poker player can lose session after session while a ploppie sitting next to him keeps hitting winning hands.

It's not hard to accept that gambling is subject to ups and downs in the short run, but the losing streaks can be lengthy and brutal. And there isn't a lot you can do about it, except to let time and the mathematics take their course.

If you've ever played golf, you might have experienced a similar level of futility.

Yet another example of apparent casino management stupidity

As each year draws to a close, I look through my American Casino Guide and Las Vegas Advisor coupon books for offers I want to use.  Most of the coupons in these books expire near the end of December. I try to take advantage of them throughout the year but, inevitably, there are a few that I must make a special effort to use in December.

One such coupon was a 'blackjack pays double" at Terrible's, which during the year changed ownership and is now the Silver Sevens (it's at Flamingo and Paradise, about a mile east of the Las Vegas Strip).

It has always been my experience with these coupons that when a casino changes ownership, the new regime accepts the coupon. Not this time.

I could understand this management decision if the coupon had been a free bet or even a match play, which doesn't require the customer to play more than one hand. But this coupon required the customer to buy in, sit down and play until a blackjack would appear, an average of about 15 minutes. I cannot see any way the casino could lose money on players on the whole using this coupon.

The coupon did accomplish one goal -- it got me into the casino, which had undergone some minor upgrading since the ownership change. But the way management handled the situation left a negative impression that wasn't overcome by anything else I saw. I doubt I'll set foot in the place again, unless and until the new ownership makes me an offer I can't refuse.

A (minor) coupon catastrophe

Every month Station Casinos sends me four free bets or two free bets and two match plays for use on table games. A free bet coupon can be used just like a chip, but in this case for one bet only. Win or lose, the dealer takes the coupon. A match play works the same way, but can be used only with chips equal to or greater than the amount of the coupon.

On Thursday I took my $15 free bet to a Stations property with the intent of playing only one hand of blackjack. I rarely do this, figuring that the free bets and match plays will dry up if I don't give the casino a reasonable amount of play. With Stations, about 50 minutes once a week has been enough to keep these coupons coming for years.

But I was headed out of town the next morning and had a long list of offers to take advantage of Thursday. So I walked up to a $10 double-deck table and put down my free bet. The dealer flips over a 6, one of the best cards for the players. I'm dealt an 8 and a 2, creating an ripe double-down opportunity. So I reach into my wallet and throw three $5 bills onto the table. The dealer turns over a five and then, as sure as night follows day, deals himself a "monkey" (face card) for 21. The only card that could have helped me was an ace, and I didn't get it. So my "free" bet wound up costing me $15.

The unexpected, both good and bad, happens often in gambling, but in the long run, any mathematical advantage you can get will play out. Free bets and match plays are definitely worth using, even though you will often lose with them and -- on rare occasions -- they can actually cost you money.

"Beware of cheap imitations"

If you're around my age -- I just turned 60 this month -- you probably remember an old advertising slogan, "beware of cheap imitations."  I was reminded of it recently by this sign in the Fiesta Henderson's parking garage:

The Fiesta buffet costs $8.99 for dinner with a player's card, about as cheap as a buffet can get. It's hard to imagine a lower-priced imitation. You may be wondering what you get for your money. I've eaten there several times recently, mostly for convenience, but it isn't bad. You could spend more and get a lot less for your money at a fast-food outlet.

Another funny thing about this sign is the exclamation, "Open 7 days a week!" I can't think of a single casino buffet in the Las Vegas area that isn't open seven days a week.

Now that my daughter has taught me how to post pictures of signs on this blog, I'm sure I'll find more funny (at least to me) ones to share in the future.