An introduction to video poker progressives

Bob Dancer, the leading video poker authority and an active player, recently wrote a column for the Las Vegas Advisor (www.lasvegasadvisor.com) about why he does not play video poker progressives. His reasons were mostly matters of personal preference. He did not say that advantage players or other smart players should not play progressives, and many of us do. As time permits, I plan to write several blog posts about video poker and other progressives.

What is a progressive? Simply put, it's a game in which a small part of the money bet by the players goes into one or more growing jackpots. Progressives can be found in slots, video poker, keno (live and video) and table games. The concept has virtually unlimited possible applications in the casino environment.

Why would casinos allow progressives, rather than keep the money going into the jackpot for themselves? First, progressives allow casinos to offer larger than normal prizes to players. A full-coin royal flush in most 25-cent video poker games is $1,000; the royal in a quarter progressive starts at $1,000 and goes up from there, possibly to $2,000, $3,000 or more. Second, progressives, many of which have signs showing the amount of the jackpot, create excitement and attract players as they see the amount they might win growing rapidly.

Sounds like a win-win. The casino offers players more, but with the players' own money feeding the pot. But in reality, casinos often aren't willing to divert even a small percentage money wagered without making up for it -- or more than making up for it. With video poker, progressives are often found on games with substandard pay tables.

For example, a casino might offer as its best non-progressive game 9/6 (full pay) jacks or better, with a long-term maximum payback to players of 99.54 percent. A progressive game might be found on 8/5 jacks or better, with a maximum payback at reset of 97.30 percent. A big progressive jackpot can make this a good play, even a better long-term play than the 9/6 jacks, but you have to know when and how to play it. More about that later.

First, let's talk about how you find video poker progressives. Often they are advertised by electronic signs. These may be simply show dollar amounts or contain other information, such as the donomination of the game. Often these signs apply to a group of machines feeding into a single progressive jackpot. Progressives are also found on idvidual machines, in which case the only way to tell there is a progressive is to look at the pay table. The web site VPFree2 lists and gives locations for the better progressives at many casinos.

Many casinos offer progressives at their bars. Often there is a sign above the bar, or two signs if there are progressives of different denominations (typically quarters and dollars). Individual machines must be checked to see which progressives are on them (often only one denomination per machine). On multi-game machines, sometimes only one game will have the progressive, sometimes more than one or all the games will. Usually the screen that appears after you push the "more games" button will show which games have the progressive, and sometimes the jackpot amount.

At many casinos progressives can be found on the casino floor. Often there are signs, some quite elaborate, above banks of machines with progressives games. But as at the bars, you have to look at the pay tables to find some progressives.

You can go into many casinos and find several video poker progressives at popular denomiations. How can you tell which ones -- if any -- are good plays? A huge jackpot alone does not make a progressive a good play.

First, you must know that there are several versions of most popular video poker games, and that changes in pay tables can have a big effect on the payback of the game. A big factor in finding good video poker progressives is find progressives with good pay tables.

But, as noted earlier, even progressives with relatively bad pay tables, such as 8/5 jacks, can be good plays. A big progressive jackpot can make up for lower return of the underlying game. For example, the break-even point of a 25-cent 9/6 progressive -- the amount of the royal flush that brings the long-term return of the game to 100 percent -- is $1,220. The break-even amount for 8/5 jacks is a whopping $2,166.

The break-even amounts, of most versions of most video poker games can be found in the Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht (RGE Publishing, Ltd.), which also contains almost 200 pay schedules and the maximum return for each game. The return of different games, including progressives, can also be determined using the software Video Poker for Winners, which, like the Scouting Guide, should be used by every serious video poker player.

In the field, you can estimate the return of a progressive game by adding 0.5 percent to the payback of the base game for every 1,000 coins added to the amount of the royal flush. For example, let's say you find a progressive on a $1 15/9 "pseudo not-do-ugly" deuces game with the royal at $6,000. The return on the underlying game is about just over 98.9 percent. The 2,000 coins added to the royal adds about 1 percent to the return of the game, leaving it just short of break-even, not counting the value of points and/or other icentives the casino might provide. According to the Scouting Guide, the actual break-even amount for this game is $6,244.

It's important to keep in mind that the return of any progressive is a long-term theoretical concept. You will get or exceed that return only after hitting your share of royal flushes and other rare hands. This is not likely to happen in one or a few sessions or weeks or months playing progressives. In most video poker games, a royal flush occurs very roughly once every 40,000 hands. For a fast player, that's once every 50 hours. And that's the average. You can and will go multiples of that many hours between royals if you become a serious player.

In the real world, a 9/6 jacks progressive at break-even and an 8/5 jacks progressive of the same denomination at break-even are far from equal. You will lose a lot more money between royals playing the latter than the former. That means you will need more money to play the latter, to survive the deeper negative swings. If you normally play 9/6 jacks for dollars, you might want to consider 8/5 jacks progressives only for 50 cents or less.

Another consideration is that the optimum strategies for different versions of the same games are different. If you normally play 9/6 jacks and want to play an 8/5 jacks progressive, to get even the meager return of the base game, you'll have to learn some changes from 9/6 strategy. In either version of jacks, further strategy changes are needed as the progressive jackpot grows to maximize the return of the game. (The work required to learn these strategy changes is one reason Dancer does not play progressives. He does not usually feel comfortable playing any less than perfect strategy.)

For these reasons, I tend to be very selective about the progressives I monitor and play. I usually won't play for any length of time any progressive where the underlying game pays back much less than 99 percent. I also look for progressives on games with strategies similar to those of the non-progressive games I normally play. One of my main non-progressive games is 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces wild. I'm comfortable playing progressives on 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces, which has a similar strategy. The other progressives I play most are on 16/10 deuces, 9/6 jacks and 8/5 bonus poker (with a stategy similar to that for 9/6 jacks).

There are other factors in deciding which progressives to play, and even more in deciding when to start playing. I'll discuss those in future posts.

Dirty trick at the Riviera? You decide

I recently returned to the Riviera with my wife to play the remaining $500 in credits I had from their $1,000 loss guarantee for new players club members. I headed to the machine I had played during my first visit, which had what appeared to be $1 8/5 bonus poker on it, which would be the best video poker game in the casino with a long-term payback of 99.17 percent with maximum bets and perfect strategy.

Except that, as my spouse noticed immediately, this game wasn't really 8/5 bonus poker, even though the pay table showed payouts of 8 per coin for the full house and 5 for the flush. What my spouse saw was a very unusual change near the bottom of the pay table. Instead of paying 2 for a full house, this game paid only 1. Because two pair occur very often in bonus poker, this change makes a huge difference in the game's theoretical payback, bringing it all the way down to 86.31 percent -- yes, that's 86, not 96 -- and making it by far the worst video poker game I have ever seen.

This alteration is perfectly legal, as long as it's disclosed on the pay table, which this was. The main lesson here is to look at all the numbers on the pay table before playing any game at any casino for the first time. Most of us are in the habit of looking at certain numbers on the pay table to determine what version of a game is in front of us -- in bonus poker, what varies is typically the payouts for the full house and flush -- but any number on the pay table can be changed. Also of note is that the same change in payout will have a bigger effect on the return of the game the farther down the pay table they are. That's because the closer you get to the bottom of the pay table, the more frequently the hands occur. One coin less for two pair hurts a lot because two pair is a very common hand in bonus poker.

I was glad I was able to avoid playing this awful game but couldn't help wondering if the pay table was the same during my first trip to the Riviera, when I played the same machine. I know I didn't check the bottom of the pay table, but I would hope I would have noticed the short pay for two pair as I played. Maybe the payout for two pair at that time was the standard 2; maybe I didn't notice the short pay. Either way, I hope I'll never fall for something like this in the future.

Since this happened, I've given a bit of thought to the ethics of it. It's standard for casinos to offer different versions of the same video poker games, but usually with the common variations in the pay table. For example, 9/6 jacks or better and 8/5 jacks or better, the first numbers referring to the payout for the full house and the second numbers for the flush. Video poker players with any level of sophistication know about these "standard variations" and look for them before choosing a game to play. The ethics question posed here is whether it is fair for a casino to make a highly unusual change in the pay table, one that most players would never think to look for -- especially one that makes an enormous difference in the payback of the game. In my mind the Riviera's pay table raises the question of what other ways it might try to take advantage of the people who play there (I have seen absolutely no evidence of anything else at all questionable). I'm not sure whether people who would do this are the kind of people I want to do business with.

Incidentally, I got the information on the payback of the Riviera's version of 8/5 bonus poker from the invaluable "Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide" by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht. That the Riviera's version of 8/5 bonus poker was in the book indicates that it has been found in other casinos (the book predates the current management regime of the Riviera). That doesn't make it any more fair, but it does reinforce the message of buyer beware when playing any video poker machine for the first time.