A false economy

If Las Vegas were a country, video poker would be the national pasttime. Many people play, but few know much about pay tables and strategy. I used to wonder how these "ploppies" managed to stay in the game.

Over the years I've come to the unscientific conclusion that most do it by playing for small stakes. They think that, by doing so, they are minimizing their costs (losses). But in many cases it's like always buying the smallest box of laundry detergent rather than the economy size, You pay less in the short run, but a lot more in the long run.

Actually, with video poker, it can be worse than that. The difference can be between losing money and making money.

A case in point: The Station Casinos and Fiestas all have machines labeled "up to 99.8 percent payback." These machines carry a variety of games at denominations ranging from nickels to dollars.

The key words in the labeling are "up to." Most of the games pay back less than 99.8 percent, and the lowest denomination games in particular. This makes sense because the casino wants to make a certain amount of money off each machine, and to accomplish that it has to take a larger percentage when a player is putting less money through.

I was playing "not so ugly" deuces on one of these machines yesterday, when the Stations were giving six times points on video poker. The game pays back just over 99.7 percent. With the point multiplier, it paid back 100.3 percent. I was playing for dollars.

The man next to me was playing for nickels. But the version of deuces wild he was playing was very ugly -- "Colorado deuces," which pays back 96.77 percent. At least he was playing maximum coin, which for this game was 10 coins. Had he been playing fewer coins, the return would have been even less.

He appeared to be playing at a moderate pace; let's assume 700 hands an hour. At 50 cents a hand, he was putting $350 an hour through the machine. Let's further assume, probably unrealistically, that he was playing near perfect strategy and was achieving a long-term return of 96.7 percent. (The reason it's unlikely he was playing this well is that Colorado deuces is a game nobody serious about video poker would play, let alone study and practice.)

If he was getting back 96.7 percent of his money, the house was getting the rest -- 3.3 percent. That comes to $11.55 an hour. By contrast, I was playing $5 a hand (max coin of five). Assuming the same speed of play, I was putting $3,500 through the machine. But the house was getting only 0.3 percent -- or $10.50 cents an hour! The dollar game is actually cheaper than the nickel game!

But wait, there's more. As noted, we were both earning points at the rate of 0.6 percent. That gave the nickel player $2.10 an hour, cutting his loss to $9.45 an hour. On my $3,500, the points added $21, giving me a profit of $10.50. (I actually play a bit faster than the rate in this example and therefore earn more.)

Although in this case playing for dollars is obviously better than playing for nickels, you need more money to survive the larger swings of the dollar game. I wouldn't recommend that a nickel player switch to dollars because of the larger bankroll required. But many nickel players would be comfortable moving up to the quarter deuces game on the "up to 99.8 percent payback" machines.

But even for nickels, there are much better options at Station properties and some other casinos in Las Vegas. Stations has machines with 100 percent payback games, including games for nickels. The deuces game on these machines is full pay deuces wild, which pays back 100.76 percent with optimum play. These machines are not eligible for point multipliers and points accrue at a much lower rate than on the 99.8 percent machines, but who cares? With the full pay deuces you're making money rather than losing money.

Video poker progressives: When to start playing, when to stop

Let's begin with the premise that we want to play video poker progressives to make a long-term profit. We've discussed how to determine when a progressive is at break-even, using the Video Poker Scouting Guide, the Video Poker for Winners software or Bob Dancer's rough rule of thumb. The only time we would want to play a game that's below break-even is when incentives supplied by the casino make the total return above 100 percent.

Aside from this basic rule, when to start playing is mostly a matter of personal preference that depends upon a player's answers to these questions:

1. What alternatives are available, in terms of other video poker plays, other gambling opportunities and other uses of time?

2. What is the player's long-term expectation of hourly earnings from playing progressives?

3. How fast is the meter rise of the progressive in question?

4. At what point is there a danger of being shut out of the action by other players?

The first question, I think, is pretty self-explanatory.

As to the second, here is how to figure earnings per hour from a particular play, progressive or not. First, determine the payback of the game. Let's say it's a progressive is at break even. The casino awards points at a with a value of 0.1 percent, but today is offering five times points. Playing today also earns drawing tickets and is helps satisfy the requirements for future offers. Let's guess the value of these benefits at 0.2 percent. So the total return of this game, assuming, as always, playing accurately according to the proper strategy, is 100.7 percent.

A moderately fast player plays about 700 hands an hour. Multiply that or the actual number of hands you play by the amount wagered per hand. For a dollar player, that's $5, or $300 an hour. 0.7 percent of that amount, of $21, is the long-term hourly earning expectation from playing that progressive with the jackpot at the amount upon which we figured the return of the game.

But the nature of progressives is that the jackpot grows. Question 3 refers to the rate of that growth as a percentage of the money played through. Usually, the only way to find this rate is to determine it yourself. For progressives on more than one machine, this must be done when no one else is playing. Simply keep track of how much the meter moves with, say each two hands ($10 on a dollar progressive) or eight hands ($10 on a quarter progressive) played.

The actual rate at which the meter will rise when more than one machine is inolved depends not only on the meter rise, but on how many machines are being played and how fast they are being played. But meter rise is an important factor in comparng progressives. All other things being equal, a progressive with a faster meter rise is more desirable than one with a slower meter rise.

The existence of meter rise means that, in the above example, $21 is only that starting hourly rate for playing that progressive. As it is being played, the hourly rate of return will increase steadily. So it makes sense to start playing when the hourly rate is somewhat below the average you want to make.

My final question, No. 4, can be answered only on the basis of experience with particular progressives, or with accurate information obtained from someone with such experience. Observing once or twice when a particular progressive begings to fill up might not be enough because interested players might not always learn immediately that a progressive has reached their strike point. What you want to figure out is the minimum amount on the meter that is likely to attract a crowd.

That's my basic approach to determing when to start playing. What about when to stop?

If I'm playing a progressive "early," before getting a seat is a concern, I play until I haver something better to do. But at some point, you want to make a commitment to stay until the progressive is hit or you physically can't play any longer.

When to do this is basically a matter of guesswork. The key thing to keep in mind is that there is no way to predict when a progressive will be hit. Progressives are often found at casino bars, and bartenders, trying to be helpful, have told me more than once that, based on their experience, a progressive should be about to pop or is overdue to be hit.

This is nonsense. When the royal comes is determined by a random number generator, which has no knowledge of how long it's been since the last royal flush or what amount is showing on the meter. The liklihood of a player getting a royal flush on a particular hand is exactly the same whether he or she got a royal on the previous hand or hasn't had one in months.

 Often a juicy progressive will last longer than one person can stay awake. Having an arrangement to trade of with one or more other players can keep you in the game longer than going it alone. Just be sure you have a complete agreement with your teammates on all relevant terms.

Some not-so-obvious reasons to play video poker progressives

The obvious reason to play video poker progressives is the opportunity they provide to win a jackpot not otherwise available on a game of the same denomination. The typical progressive starts at the normal amount for the full-coin royal flush and goes up from there. Although some casinos cap progressive jackpots, generally there is no limit to how big they can grow.

As we have seen, a big jackpot does not necessarily make a progressive a good long-term play. But for the casual player, it's not irrational to prefer a game that offers the possibility of a big hit even if the paytable shorts some of the smaller hands. That's why many bars have progressives -- often, but not always, with very tight pay tables. Many of the customers there are interested in playing only long enough to get a free drink.

For the player in it for the long term, the main reason to play video poker progressives is that they can offer a better expected value than any other available game. But there are other reasons:

1. Many casinos reduce the points or other benefits earned by playing their best games. This started with 100 percent payback games but at some casinos has spread to games that pay back less. A progressives may have a theoretical return of more than 100 percent as the meter rises but still offer players full points based on the pay table.

2. Similarly, theoretical return is factor in many casinos' formulas regarding mailers and other benefits. It appears that when this is the case, "theo" is based on the pay table with the royal flush at reset. Casinos do not seem to be able to track changes in the return of progresssives as they are being played. So playing a progressive may bring more future free play and other benefits than playing a game with a looser underlying pay table.

3. Advantage video poker players think in terms of the hourly value of a play. Progressives can offer not only some of the highest-value plays, but plays that last longer than other opportunities. A progressive can be attractive for days or weeks before it is hit, whereas other advantage plays, such as point multipliers, may be good only for hours or for a number of base points that can be played in a short time.

4. As a progressive jackpot grows, a sense of excitement often develops. Part of this is due to the fact that the value of playing a progressive increases as the meter rises. The value of playing a static game is always the same (except for point multipliers and other  benefits provided by the casino), but each minute playing a progressive is more valuable that the prior minute, until it is hit. At least theoretically, the longer you stay, the more money you make.

It is important to keep in mind that the return of playing a progressive is a long-term concept. Most of the time when you play you are not going to hit the royal, and you are not going to come out ahead. But your results in the long term eventually will reflect the overall expected value of the games you play.

An introduction to video poker progressives

Bob Dancer, the leading video poker authority and an active player, recently wrote a column for the Las Vegas Advisor (www.lasvegasadvisor.com) about why he does not play video poker progressives. His reasons were mostly matters of personal preference. He did not say that advantage players or other smart players should not play progressives, and many of us do. As time permits, I plan to write several blog posts about video poker and other progressives.

What is a progressive? Simply put, it's a game in which a small part of the money bet by the players goes into one or more growing jackpots. Progressives can be found in slots, video poker, keno (live and video) and table games. The concept has virtually unlimited possible applications in the casino environment.

Why would casinos allow progressives, rather than keep the money going into the jackpot for themselves? First, progressives allow casinos to offer larger than normal prizes to players. A full-coin royal flush in most 25-cent video poker games is $1,000; the royal in a quarter progressive starts at $1,000 and goes up from there, possibly to $2,000, $3,000 or more. Second, progressives, many of which have signs showing the amount of the jackpot, create excitement and attract players as they see the amount they might win growing rapidly.

Sounds like a win-win. The casino offers players more, but with the players' own money feeding the pot. But in reality, casinos often aren't willing to divert even a small percentage money wagered without making up for it -- or more than making up for it. With video poker, progressives are often found on games with substandard pay tables.

For example, a casino might offer as its best non-progressive game 9/6 (full pay) jacks or better, with a long-term maximum payback to players of 99.54 percent. A progressive game might be found on 8/5 jacks or better, with a maximum payback at reset of 97.30 percent. A big progressive jackpot can make this a good play, even a better long-term play than the 9/6 jacks, but you have to know when and how to play it. More about that later.

First, let's talk about how you find video poker progressives. Often they are advertised by electronic signs. These may be simply show dollar amounts or contain other information, such as the donomination of the game. Often these signs apply to a group of machines feeding into a single progressive jackpot. Progressives are also found on idvidual machines, in which case the only way to tell there is a progressive is to look at the pay table. The web site VPFree2 lists and gives locations for the better progressives at many casinos.

Many casinos offer progressives at their bars. Often there is a sign above the bar, or two signs if there are progressives of different denominations (typically quarters and dollars). Individual machines must be checked to see which progressives are on them (often only one denomination per machine). On multi-game machines, sometimes only one game will have the progressive, sometimes more than one or all the games will. Usually the screen that appears after you push the "more games" button will show which games have the progressive, and sometimes the jackpot amount.

At many casinos progressives can be found on the casino floor. Often there are signs, some quite elaborate, above banks of machines with progressives games. But as at the bars, you have to look at the pay tables to find some progressives.

You can go into many casinos and find several video poker progressives at popular denomiations. How can you tell which ones -- if any -- are good plays? A huge jackpot alone does not make a progressive a good play.

First, you must know that there are several versions of most popular video poker games, and that changes in pay tables can have a big effect on the payback of the game. A big factor in finding good video poker progressives is find progressives with good pay tables.

But, as noted earlier, even progressives with relatively bad pay tables, such as 8/5 jacks, can be good plays. A big progressive jackpot can make up for lower return of the underlying game. For example, the break-even point of a 25-cent 9/6 progressive -- the amount of the royal flush that brings the long-term return of the game to 100 percent -- is $1,220. The break-even amount for 8/5 jacks is a whopping $2,166.

The break-even amounts, of most versions of most video poker games can be found in the Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht (RGE Publishing, Ltd.), which also contains almost 200 pay schedules and the maximum return for each game. The return of different games, including progressives, can also be determined using the software Video Poker for Winners, which, like the Scouting Guide, should be used by every serious video poker player.

In the field, you can estimate the return of a progressive game by adding 0.5 percent to the payback of the base game for every 1,000 coins added to the amount of the royal flush. For example, let's say you find a progressive on a $1 15/9 "pseudo not-do-ugly" deuces game with the royal at $6,000. The return on the underlying game is about just over 98.9 percent. The 2,000 coins added to the royal adds about 1 percent to the return of the game, leaving it just short of break-even, not counting the value of points and/or other icentives the casino might provide. According to the Scouting Guide, the actual break-even amount for this game is $6,244.

It's important to keep in mind that the return of any progressive is a long-term theoretical concept. You will get or exceed that return only after hitting your share of royal flushes and other rare hands. This is not likely to happen in one or a few sessions or weeks or months playing progressives. In most video poker games, a royal flush occurs very roughly once every 40,000 hands. For a fast player, that's once every 50 hours. And that's the average. You can and will go multiples of that many hours between royals if you become a serious player.

In the real world, a 9/6 jacks progressive at break-even and an 8/5 jacks progressive of the same denomination at break-even are far from equal. You will lose a lot more money between royals playing the latter than the former. That means you will need more money to play the latter, to survive the deeper negative swings. If you normally play 9/6 jacks for dollars, you might want to consider 8/5 jacks progressives only for 50 cents or less.

Another consideration is that the optimum strategies for different versions of the same games are different. If you normally play 9/6 jacks and want to play an 8/5 jacks progressive, to get even the meager return of the base game, you'll have to learn some changes from 9/6 strategy. In either version of jacks, further strategy changes are needed as the progressive jackpot grows to maximize the return of the game. (The work required to learn these strategy changes is one reason Dancer does not play progressives. He does not usually feel comfortable playing any less than perfect strategy.)

For these reasons, I tend to be very selective about the progressives I monitor and play. I usually won't play for any length of time any progressive where the underlying game pays back much less than 99 percent. I also look for progressives on games with strategies similar to those of the non-progressive games I normally play. One of my main non-progressive games is 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces wild. I'm comfortable playing progressives on 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces, which has a similar strategy. The other progressives I play most are on 16/10 deuces, 9/6 jacks and 8/5 bonus poker (with a stategy similar to that for 9/6 jacks).

There are other factors in deciding which progressives to play, and even more in deciding when to start playing. I'll discuss those in future posts.

Places we used to play

Since we started coming to Vegas about 10 years ago, we have probably played with some frequency at about 40 casinos. We're now down to about 10. In most cases -- all until quite recently -- the decision to stop patronizing a casino was ours. In the past few months, several casinos have cut off the offers that made it worthwhile for one or both of us to play there.

Over the years we have heard stories about video poker players being "no mailed" (mail offers stopped coming) and even being outright barred from playing. We learned that the players cards of those who patronized South Point only on double point days sometimes stopped working, that those who won "too much" at Ellis Island were asked not to come in any more, and that Station Casinos (slogan: "We Love Winners") had barred Bob Dancer from playing there.

But for years, we were the ones who got to decide, exclusively, where we would play video poker. We played where we thought we could make money, which meant places with good games, good players club benefits and good promotions. When any of those things changed significantly to our detriment, we were gone.

In the past 10 years, the main thing that changed was the games. Probably 90 percent or more of the changes were for the worse. There were many reasons for this. As good video poker books and software became available, more players were able to cut into the take the casinos expected from good games because a good part of that take resulted from player mistakes. Video poker, once considered just another form of slot machine, began to be seen more like blackjack, a game that players could beat. One way casinos could protect themselves was to take out high-payback games.

The recession worsened this trend, as did the additional self-inflicted financial troubles of some of the big gaming companies. In many cases players bore at least some of the burden in the form of pay-table downgrades and stingier comp policies,

In most cases we tried to work with the new realities. I think one of the biggest mistakes a player can make is to overreact to change. Even if can't do exactly what you had been doing at a particular casino, there may be other opportunities to make money there, especially if you're still getting mail offers.

But sometimes the changes are just too severe. We kept playing at several casinos as they removed one game after another, but you have to draw the line when there is nothing left that's worth playing.
The sad thing is that the public is so ignorant that these casinos have not been forced to relent and bring back better games, if not the best games they ever had.

The following is a list of some of the casinos we have stopped playing at, or are in the process of phasing out our play; the games we used to play there; and in some cases other reasons for our decision:

1. Club Fortune, Henderson, Nev. -- this neighborhood casino once had positive games, including 25 cent full pay deuces wild and $1 loose deuce deuces wild.

2. Hooters -- $1 full pay double bonus deuces wild and "not so ugly" deuces gave way to 9/6 jacks or better as the best game. We left after that came out and management decided 9/7 double bonus was too strong a game to allow point multipliers on.

3. The Stratosphere -- I think I burned out the $1 loose deuces when I hit the deuces three times in one weekend. They disappeared soon after; so did I.

4. Eastside Cannery -- $1 NSU deuces are long gone, leaving 8/5 bonus poker the best game for dollars and up. Points earned are not competitive with other casinos on the Boulder Highway, and promotions and mailers aren't making up the difference.

5. Peppermill's Rainbow -- this locals casino in downtown Henderson once had 50 cent full pay deuces. Without a players club, there's no reason to go there unless a progressive is high enough to be a positive play.

6. Jackpot Joanie's -- this chain of small casino-bars lost us as customers when it downgraded NSU deuces to "pseudo" NSU, changing the payback from 99.7 percent to 98.9.

7. Dotty's -- another group of casino-bars cut its point multipliers on video poker.

8. Arizona Charlie's Decatur -- there are good games, but you earn so few points playing them that a good mailer is needed to make playing there worthwhile. The mailers started out strong but faded with time.

9. The Palms -- My spouse still plays there a little, but all the changes since George Maloof was deposed have taken most of the value out of playing there. You can still make a little money, but not enough in my opinion to make playing there worthwhile.

10. The Orleans -- Video poker has been tight since we first played there, but for a while we got mailers with free play and giant point multipliers. When those stopped, we stopped playing there.

11. The Westgate -- When this near-Strip property was the Las Vegas Hilton, it was one of the best places to play, with the best tournaments in town, positive and near-positive $1 video poker, and great promotions. Through ownership changes, most of the benefits and the best video poker games for more than 25 cents disappeared. This was probably our biggest loss.

Further adventures in Reno

As I've noted before, my spouse and I got interested in Reno because several casinos there offer good video poker games at higher denominations than are generally available in Las Vegas. This weekend we took a trip to Reno for the primary purpose of earning Diamond in a day at Harrah's Las Vegas.

The spouse, who put in some heavy play a while back at the Rio in Las Vegas, got an offer for a free room for a weekend at Harrah's Reno and round-trip airfare for two. This was an attractive proposition because Harrah's Reno offers the best game on which to earn the 5,000 tier credits needed for Diamond status, though the game turned out not to be exactly what we expected.

I'll explain, but first, a little background. Diamond in the second-highest tier level in Caesars Entertainment's Total Rewards program. Most player reward programs have tier levels, but they usually don't mean that much. You might get preferred parking, a discount at the buffet or gift shop, and shorter lines at the players club. A few, such as Boyd Gaming's B Connected, offer players at higher tier levels all-the-time point multipliers, a benefit that has real, quantifiable value.

I am not yet an expert on Total Rewards, but many benefits seem to come to those who achieve diamond status or the top tier, Seven Stars. Among other things, these players get free rooms and show tickets without having to use reward credits. My spouse has gotten several offers for tournaments that require a hotel stay at a Caesars property, but as less-than-Diamond, she has had to pay the (pretty steep) resort fees on her "comped" rooms. These fees are waived for Diamond and Seven Stars players.

Diamond status normally requires earning 15,000 tier credits in a year. On most video poker at Caesars casinos, $10 coin in earns one tier credit. So the requirement for earning Diamond is $150,000 coin in. But, if you earn 5,000 tier credits in one day ($50,000 coin in), Caesars will give you a bonus of 10,000 tier credits and make you Diamond.

The problem is where to earn the 5,000 tier credits. Most of the video poker at Caesars properties is, by our standards, too tight to play. The best games in Las Vegas, at the Rio, require considerably more coin in that $10 to earn a tier credit -- as much as $50. But Harrah's in Reno offers 9/6 jacks or better, with 99.54 percent maximum payback, yielding a tier credit for only $10 coin in. This would allow us each to earn Diamond status at an expected cost of about $250, which equals one-half of one percent of $50,000.

Based on what my spouse saw on VPFree2.com, we expected to find $1, $2 and $5 single-line games of 9/6 jacks or better. The plan was to play for $2, betting $10 a hand at max coin and putting through $50,000 in five to seven hours.

But what we found was the single-line game only at $1. The only other choices were triple play and five play at $5 a hand. It would have taken a very long (and boring day) to put through $50,000 on the $1 game, so we decided to play the triple play -- at $75 a hand.

Unfortunately, we both lost a lot of money in a short time. The result could have been just as bad as if we had played all day for $1, but it seemed worse because it came in such a short time. I think we put enough money through that we didn't fall victim to a very negative short-term swing, and the fact that we were playing three hands at a time evened out our results some (decreased our variance, in technical terms). I think we made the right decision, though the price we paid was a lot higher than we had hoped for. It is normal for gambling results in the short term to vary wildly from mathematical expectations. Had either of us hit a royal flush on any one line, it would have paid $20,000, pushing our results much further in the opposite direction.

I'm going to start something new in these postings: tips to casino management. The first one is based on what happened in Harrah's high limit room when we finished playing and went to cash out our slot tickets. The employee said "pretty good" or something like that when presented my spouse's ticket for more than $1,000. She informed him that it wasn't good, it was what was left of a lot more money. I have had the similar experience many times of being congratulated by a casino employee on what was actually a losing slot ticket or stack of chips. The tip is simply to train employees never to assume based on the amount being cashed out that a player has won.

Finally, a word about Harrah's hotel in Reno. This place may not quite qualify as a dump, but it's pretty close, especially the East Tower. The casino in that building contains some very strange things, including a single bowling lane; an area that looked like a sparsely equipped basement rec room; a closed sundries shop containing a dusty old craps table and some wrecked fixtures; and what a guest told us was an abandoned noodle bar with an old banquet table and chairs. It's inconceivable to me that the latter two areas weren't at least walled off so guests couldn't see them. They made that area look like something from 'Hotel Impossible."

Evaluating a new offer from the Silverton

My February mailer from the Silverton contains a new "bonus offer" that requires some evaluation to determine whether it's worth pursuing. I've decided to share this process to give anyone interested an idea of the considerations involved, which are more complex than they might first appear, as well as the math, which is not as difficult as it might first appear (if I can do it, almost anyone can do it).

The offer is simple: "When you earn at least 60,000 slot point during the month of February, we'll give you $105 in Free Slot Play!"

First, we have to know how much coin in is required to earn 60,000 points. For the Silverton, that's an easy calculation: $1 coin in earns 1 point on most video poker. Remember, coin in is money run through the machines, including recycled wins, not money actually inserted.

Next we have to figure the cost of playing $60,000 through. The best video poker game at the Silverton is 8/5 bonus poker, with a maximum payback of 99.17 percent. For simplicity and to account for less-than-perfect play, let's use 99.1 percent as our payback percentage, giving the house a hold of 0.9 percent. We multiply that by $60,000 to get the cost of playing enough to get the bonus. The answer is $540. So far, it looks like a lousy deal -- lose an expected $540 to get $105 in free play.

But there's more to consider. Points at the Silverton are worth 0.3 percent and can be used for free play, which is a cash equivalent if we're going to play at that casino anyway. 0.3 times 60,000 is 180, so we reduce our expected loss by that amount: $540 - $180 = $360. We're closer, but still quite far from from profitability.

The next thing I would consider is how much coin in I would play at the Silverton anyway to continue to get a mailer and take advantage of promotions. My records for recent months show that I played an average of less than $30,000 a month at the Silverton. I'm assuming I would play about my usual amount without the bonus offer, so I'm going to figure the cost of the additional play to see if the bonus offer is worthwhile. Let's use a round number of $35,000. Again, we multiply by the house's hold of 0.9 percent, giving us a gross cost of $315.Than we multiply $35,000 by the value of the Silverton's slot points, 0.3 percent, to get an offset of $105. We subtract that from $315 to get $210, which I would consider the approximate actual cost of earning the $105 in free play. This amount might be further offset by getting more free play in one or more future mailers because of the additional coin in. But this possibility isn't enough to sway me to play at a loss.

If the numbers had come out in favor of taking up the offer, I would have considered one more factor: the time required for the additional play. At the Silverton, 8/5 bonus poker is offered in many forms, including 10-play and 100-play that allow a lot of money to be put through in relatively little time. I'm not going to figure out exactly what I would have played, but if the offer had been profitable, I'm sure I could have made it work out time-wise. At other casinos, time might be much more of a factor.

I like the kind of offer the Silverton made, sometimes called a "points challenge," but not the specific numbers. This offer doesn't work for me, and I doubt it will work well for the Silverton, either. It doesn't seem realistic to me to expect many players to more than double their usual amount of play at a casino, unless that usual amount is very small. Setting rewards, possibly on a sliding scale, for increases of, say, 20, 35 and 50 percent, probably would get a better response.

Stupidity at the Plaza

Last night my spouse and I made a rare Saturday night visit to downtown Las Vegas. One of our goals was to use an American Casino Guide coupon for $5 free play at the Plaza, and the check on whether the $1 full-pay (10/7) Double Bonus video poker gives full player club points (some games there that pay less give no points).

After redeeming the coupon at the players' club, we found the two machines carrying the game we were looking for. They had signs on them saying free play was not available. This was not a major surprise because some casinos make free play unavailable on their best games (10/7 pays back over 100 percent with max coins bet and optimum play, which isn't easy to achieve). My spouse put some money in, played a few hands and determined that the game did indeed pay full points.

That was the last good thing we saw at the Plaza.

We still had the $5 free play to use, and started looking for a video poker machine that would allow that. All the machines we saw were labeled ineligible for free play. I went to the players' club and asked whether there were any VP machines that allowed for free play. I was told that as of two months ago, the answer is no. Management decided to exempt all video poker from use of free play.

So we tried to use the free play on a couple of slot machines, and then on a video keno machine. Each time the card reader said my spouse's account was already in use, apparently as a result of having stuck the card in the machine to test the Double Bonus game. We didn't know how long we'd have to wait for the card to be usable again, but we quickly determined that it wasn't worth it to find out.

The Plaza does allow points to be used for cash back instead of free play, but only if you have one of the two top tiers of players' card. If you don't, you're stuck using your points for free play on a slot machine. And if you get promotional free play in a mailer, you're stuck using it on a slot machine no matter what level card you have.

Why, you might ask, would the casino do this? Why would it care what machine its customers play? The answer is that in general, slot machines have a much higher hold for the house than video poker. So by getting video poker players to put some money through on slots, the house can keep a higher percentage of that money.

Great in theory, but the problem is that many video poker players don't want to play slots, either because the the lower return to the players or because they just don't like playing what many of them consider a mindless game of chance as opposed to a game of skill.

And I think it's fair to say that most people don't like to be bossed around. This is a form of bossing around that no other casino I am aware of is engaging in. I am constantly amazed by the arrogance of some casino executives who are apparently blissfully unaware that they are in a highly competitive business that relies on discretionary income. You'd think they's be more concerned about not ticking off their customers, particularly in ways their competitors aren't doing.

The best games at the Plaza are 10/7 Double Bonus and 9/6 Jacks or Better. Both are offered at other downtown casinos where you can earn full points and use free play on the machine of your choice. Where would you rather play these games?

Back to the Palms

When George Maloof owned the Palms, I was a regular customer. Like all other casinos, it had its annoying quirks, but the Palms offered good games and some attractive promotions. After Mr. Maloof lost control of the property, the management put in by the new owners made a series of decisions that culminated in my severing my business relationship with the Palms.

Since around the first of the year, the Palms has been under new managers, and they have justified my giving the Palms a second chance. The most significant change is that they put in a good game -- $1 "not so ugly" deuces (99.73 percent maximum payback) --  and made it eligible for all promotions. (In the Maloof era, all games with maximum payback of more than 99.54 percent were ineligible for most promotions.)

Another attractive, and innovative, move: Anyone who participates in the Palms' weekly drawing and isn't called now gets $10 in free play, good the next day. That's as much as $50 this month. Because the Palms' points are worth 0.25 percent, making NSU deuces nearly break-even, that's money in the bank.

The last mailer I received before this policy went into effect offered $3 in free play four times in March. This mailer was not adequate enticement to get me into the casino. With the NSU deuces available, $10 a week from the drawings in April was enough to entice me to give the Palms some play and see what I would get the next month. I did get a mailer for May with $10 in free play four times, plus one $5 dining credit. Not terrible impressive, but combined with the free play from the drawings, enough to get me through the door each week this month.

I was disappointed to see that my mailer did not include any free pulls on Megabucks or Wheel of Fortune. In the Maloof era, I would get two pulls on Megabucks three times a week and two on Wheel of Fortune twice a week. These were not high-value promotions but allowed me to go for some fantasy jackpots on machines I would not otherwise play. The Palms also used to have swipe card promotions on Tuesdays and Thursdays. The prizes were often disappointing but once in a while I'd get something of value. Apparently those have been discontinued. The Palms still offers gifts on many Saturdays, which is also the day the free play from the drawings is good, giving two reasons to come to the casino.

Among the Palms' quirks is that it does not offer point multipliers. Instead, it has a more-or-less ongoing promotions called Play for Prizes. The face value of the prizes, which change about every two weeks, is generally 0.25 percent of the coin-in required to earn them on video poker, so if there's a prize that's worth full price to you, the promotion effectively doubles your points. Only play on weekdays is eligible for the promotion.

I am cautiously optimistic that the Palms will work its way back to being a leading locals' casino. For now, I plan to give it a moderate amount of play and see what happens. If anything changes, I'll let you know.

Differences between gambling and real life

In real life, if something happens again and again, we assume it's going to keep happening, and almost always we're right. The sun came up in the morning two days ago, yesterday and today. We can be all but certain it will come up tomorrow.

In gambling, that's often not the case. In blackjack, we can hit 16 against the dealer's 10 and bust, and do it again and bust, and do it again and bust. Yet the right play, for a non-card counter, is to do it every time. In the long run, the player will come out very slightly ahead by always hitting the 16.

Why can't we learn from the experience of hitting the 16 and busting again and again? Basically because gambling is governed by the mathematics of random events, not by the laws of nature.

The first thing we must understand is the meaning of "random." Many people seem to think that random means scattered all over the place, without any pattern. Not necessarily. Random outcomes can include significant streaks or bunching of results.

So even though hitting the 16 will produce enough positive results to make it worthwhile, it can -- and will -- result in the player busting two, threee, four and more times consecutively. It seems to be stupid to continue such a futile move, but the mathematics of gambling asserts itself over thousands and thousands of trials, not over half a dozen hands of blackjack.

As a result of not understanding this principle, gamblers often try to get a different result by making changes that cannot affect the outcome of the game or can affect it only negatively.

An acqaintance of mine, a video poker player, does this by pulling or inserting her player's card when things are going bad, by swtiching games and/or denomination played, and by changing the number of coins she bets. (One time I saw her hit a royal on a less-than-full-coin bet, which cost her a lot of money and some embarrassment.)

Here's why these things don't work: The part of the machine that deals the cards doesn't know if a player's card is inserted or not. By not using your player's card every time you play on a machine, you're just denying yourself comps and other casino marketing benefits. Switching games or denominations isn't going to alter your long-term results. You should always play what for you is the best game available at the denomination that best fits your bankroll. Given the promotions available on a particular day, there is usually only one game and one denomination that will give a particular player the best long-term results. And, there is almost never a good reason to bet less than the maximum on video poker, because of the huge penalty on a royal hit with less than maximum coin. And again, the part of the machine that deals the cards has no idea how many coins have been bet.

Another way in which gambling differs from most other aspects of life is the relationship between effort and result. In gambling, practice and study do pay off, but only in a long run measured in months or years. An expert video poker player can lose session after session while a ploppie sitting next to him keeps hitting winning hands.

It's not hard to accept that gambling is subject to ups and downs in the short run, but the losing streaks can be lengthy and brutal. And there isn't a lot you can do about it, except to let time and the mathematics take their course.

If you've ever played golf, you might have experienced a similar level of futility.

Follow-up on the Palms

As predicted, the 50-cent full pay deuces have been removed from the Palms.

This violates the general rule that it's better for a casino not to offer something attractive to players and yank it away, then never to offer it at all.

One clue that the 50-cent deuces wouldn't last was that there were a number of them adjacent to one another, making it possible for several people at once to play two machines at a time. And these machines were fast! The set-up was a magnet for advantage players.

When new management took over from founder George Maloof at the Palms, it removed the 25-cent full-pay deuces progressive (and other potential advantage plays). Why the new management thought the 50-cent deuces wouldn't hurt the bottom line as much as the quarter deuces is beyond me.

I was told a few months ago the new management's changes in video poker at the Palms were over. Apparently that wasn't true.

Notes and thoughts on a few new things:

1. The Orleans has changed its Tuesday seniors program to include a drawing at 4 p.m. This drawing is unusual in a couple of a little unusual. You don't have to activate your tickets -- everyone who has played during the eligibility period is entered automatically. But you do have to present to win. Three names are called. Each winner who is there gets $1,000. Any money that isn't claimed carries over to the following week. The first week, none of the three winners was there. I suspect the prizes will sometimes be substantial, but with everyone who has played during the earning period entered, the chances of winning are reduced. I plan to time my visits to the Orleans to be there for this drawing and see how it goes. Incidentally, exactly what the earning period is is unclear. It was announced in the casino that it's just the day of the drawing, but I was been clicking the "drawings" button on the kiosks and finding tickets for this drawing on other days. Next chance I get, I'll review the written rules, which are on a sign in front of the players' club.

2. I was very disappointed in a promotion at the M Resort that started Friday night. The deal was, earn up to five swipes by putting $250 coin in on video poker. Some swipes would award free play. In my case, five swipes resulted in nothing. My wife got a total of $10. A near-Strip resort has been running a similar promotion this month and the same week I got nothing at the M I got $140 in free play at the other place (which I am not naming because to keep competition at its drawings, which have been very good to me, to a minimum). At both places I play 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces for $1 on the five-play machines, betting $25 a hand. I would think that kind of play would earn something, especially on the first day of a promotion. I cannot understand why casino executives implement promotions that will tick people off instead of promoting the casinos' business. In fairness to the M, its seniors' drawing on Tuesdays offers a good chance of winning meaningful prizes, but this new promotion appears to be a big stinker. Another disappointment at the M: The convenience store on the property apparently has been sold and no longer accepts M slot club points for payment for gas or other purchases.

3. Guess what's back at the Palms? After all the 100-percent payback games had been removed, two or three weeks ago I walked over the area where the $2 "not so ugly" 16/10 deuces were and found them replaced by two rows of 100-percent-plus payback machines, with big signs on top advertising their presence. The games on two rows of machines are double bonus, double double bonus and deuces wild at 25 and 50 cents. Points are earned at one-quarter the rate on other games, making them worth 0.625 percent. Double bonus, which is very difficult to play accurately, and double double bonus, which pays back barely over 100 percent with perfect play, are still fairly common in Las Vegas and can be found in denominations as high as $1. Deuces wild, which pays back 100.76 percent with perfect play, has become relatively rare even at quarters and is found at 50 cents only in two small casinos in Henderson that don't have slot clubs. So the 50-cent full-pay deuces at the Palms is quite a find. Unfortunately, if history is a guide, it won't last long, so enjoy it while you can.
4. Stations continues its comeback with a surprisingly strong promotion this month. Each day through May 28, players' club members can swipe their card at a kiok for prizes. When Stations has run this type of promotion in the past, the prizes have often been disappointing. In particular, they would often be drawing tickets, which were worse than worthless because any edge an individual would get would be swamped by the extra entries awarded other players. Other prizes included slot club points, dining credits and free play. This time, the types of prizes are the same, but in my and my wife's experience, the prizes are many times more valuable than they have been in the past. Point prizes have ranged from 5,000 to 25,000; free play from $10 to $100, and dining credits from $10 to $50. This promotion is been run in conjunction with daily drawings in which five people at each of the eight Stations and two Fiestas wins $500 and a chance to win a Cadillac in a drawing held that night. Winners who are present get an extra $500. The best news about the swipe card part of the promotion is that the drawing ticket prizes have become quite rare and the number of tickets awarded enough to give the winner a real advantage. I was awarded drawing tickets only once in this promotion and the 5,000 extra entries may have been responsible for me winning one of the $1,000 prizes that night (the free drawing tickets, unlike tickets earned during the promotion, are good for one night only). Kudos to Stations for running a promotion that gives its customers something of real value every day they come in.

5. A small casino in Henderson, Club Fortune ticked me and at least a couple of other players off a couple of weeks ago. At this casino it has long been possible to download free play only on certain machines, but these included virtually every machine in the high-limit room. I walked in one day to find labels on almost all the machines in this room saying "this machine does not accept free play." My wife, who preceded me into the room, heard one player saying he was going to the players' club to complain. I tracked down a slot attendant and asked to speak with a manager. The explanation I got was that the slot director wanted to spread the availablilty of free-play compatible machines throughout the floor to give more people a chance to use free play on their favorite machines. This might have made some sense if I had not also been told that the move was made in conjuction with a doubling of the number of machines available for free play. The only sense I could make of this move is that it is a crude attempt to force customers to play at least their free play on machines with worse pay tables, but I did not express this opinion to the manager I spoke with, because it can be hazardous to become known to casino management as a player who knows too much. At any rate, this appears to be a particularly petty, stupid move by a casino's management in terms of possible gain versus irritation of bigger players. Here are two good rules for casino executives to keep in mind: 1. People don't like to have things taken away, even relatively minor conveniences, and 2. People don't like to be told they can't do something at your casino that they can do at other casinos (at most casinos, free play can be used at all or a vast majority of machines).

'We want the hardcore gambler ...'

The above is an unusual, almost heretical, statement by a casino executive, yet it was made by Noah Acres, the Riviera's director of player development (more about this ironic title later), in material aimed not at industry insiders but at new players at his casino.

The reason such statements are so rare is that the "gaming" industry has taken great pains to paint gambling as just another form of entertainment, one with minimal negative effects on the communities where casinos are found. Casinos stress that they love winners, but what they really love are ignorant players who win by dumb luck. Anyone who knows enough not even to win but just to lose less than most is considered a threat by many if not most gaming executives.

Of course, the ugly truth about gambling is that it ruins lives. Not many, as a percentage of those who gamble, but undoubtedly thousands each year in the United States. The extent to which the gaming industry is responsible for creating, enabling and increasing addiction is beyond the scope of this post, because it is beyond my knowledge of these issues. But I do know that the industry does everything it can to disassociate itself from anything hinting at exploitation of addicted gamblers.

The context of Mr. Acres' statement was an information card on a promotion at the Riviera offering new and some inactive players a $1,000 loss guarantee. There's nothing new about this kind of promotion but in five years in Las Vegas I have never seen one this big.

The idea is simple. You sign up for a players' club card and go play a slot or video poker machine until you have had enough or lost $1,000. If you are unlucky enough to win, it's as if the promotion didn't exist. You cash out as usual and that's it. If you lose, you get half your loss back immediately in the form of free slot play and half on your "next visit" (if you take advantage of this promotion, be sure to ask when the second installment becomes available and how long your have to use both installments of your free slot play).

Before we went to the Riviera, my wife and I listened to a discussion of this promotion on the radio program "Gambling with an Edge." Based on the discussion among hosts Bob Dancer and Mike Shakelford and guest Richard Munchkin, we set a goal of winning $2,000 or busting out trying. Losing, say, $300 would be taking advantage of only 30 percent of the value of the promotion. We made sure to get to the casino early in the evening to give ourselves plenty of time to run through $1,000 each.

Several types of slot, video poker and virtual table game machines have been excluded from this promotion. We both decided to play video poker at the highest denomination available, $1 single line. My spouse opted to play double double bonus even though the pay table, 8/5, is horrendous (we looked it up later and found the payback was less than 97 percent). This game offers a lot of opportunities for big hits, including $2,000 for four aces and a kicker, meaning that if she got lucky, she could reach $4,000 without hitting a royal flush. The downside of this strategy is that if she didn't get many four-of-a-kinds she could go down quickly. Of course, with the loss guarantee, the downside risk was greatly reduced. I took a more conservative approach, playing the best game available, 8/5 bonus poker (slightly over 99 percent payback). I knew I'd need a royal flush to hit $2,000, but I planned to alter my strategy a bit to increase the chance of hitting a royal (but in the process decrease the statistical return of the game). I hoped that playing a game with a higher return and less variance would keep me alive longer, giving me more of a chance to hit the royal. Another factor is that I am more comfortable playing bonus poker than double double bonus, though I have played the latter in tournaments.

In retrospect, I think both decisions were defensible, but my wife's was better -- and not just because she wound up hitting four aces with a kicker (after hitting four aces without, which kept her going awhile). I wound up losing $1,000 in less than two hours. At that point she was up a couple of hundred. I went and got my first $500 in free play and ran it through the machine. We decided I'd take advantage of some opportunies at other casinos and come back in a couple of hours. A half hour, maybe 40 minutes later she called me and said she had hit the four aces with a kicker. She was down only about $200, so if she quit right then she'd lock in a $1,800 win. The alternative under our plan was to try to win more or lose a full $1,000, and there probably wasn't time for that. So she "settled" for a win that was $200 short of her goal.

The reason her strategy was probably better than mine is because she had more chances to win. She also had much more of a chance of losing, but the entire loss would be reimbursed. Of course, had she actually lost, she would have played the free play much more conservatively because at that point any losses would be hers, and real.

Now, a word about the title of that executive who said he wanted "the hardcore gambler." To the unititated, "director of player development" might sound like someone in charge of educating players, making them better. But this is the last thing the casinos want. The development in this title refers to the casinos' business, not the quality of its players (unless quality is defined as losing more).

As for Mr. Acres, I think he's got quite a challenge ahead of him. The Riviera, one of the oldest casinos on the Strip, is, by today's standards, a dump. Think the Tropicana before its recent makeover. Furthermore, it's in a really bad neighborhood, by Strip standards, stuck amid closed casinos, failed projects and that butt of jokes, Circus Circus.

The loss guarantee will bring tourists in and maybe some locals. But whether they'll come back is another issue. The Riviera has introduced some better-than-usual games, for the Strip, including single zero roulette. But the games mostly aren't as good as those available in locals' casinos. I'll be back to play my second $500 in free play, but after that Mr. Acres and his colleagues will have to come up with something else to hook me as a regular.

I wish them luck in trying to revive the Riviera, and I'm afraid they're going to need it.

Palms update

At the Palms the other night I bumped into a slot manager and started what became a lengthy conversation between him and my wife and me about the recent changes at the Palms. First, the good news: According to this particular executive, the removal of good video poker games is over. But like anything else said by any casino employee, this must be taken with a grain of salt. Everthing in a casino is always subject to change, and from my outside perspective, internal communication within casinos and casino companies appears to be generally terrible, so employees are not always aware of what is going on or coming down the pike.

This manager admitted that many customers have complained about the changes and that the Palms has recently lost some business to the Gold Coast, a casino across the street that now has a generally stronger video poker lineup than the Palms. He also said that many of the complainers are still coming to the Palms, out of habit, if nothing else. Significantly, while defending the changes from a business point of view, he admitted that they were handled poorly from a public relations point of view. I'm not sure what the best way is to handle a situation where you're taking something away from people, but the Palms has done little to soften the blow, making at least some longtime customers feel their business is no longer appreciated (the executive made it clear that concerning some customers, this is in fact the case).

He also said that machines have been removed because too many were underused. Casinos pay a state fee for each machine on the slot floor, and of course have many other expenses, so a machine that doesn't get enough play is less valuable than empty floor space (maybe that explains the open prairies at the M Resort). Separted from the issue of the types of games and pay tables offered, this strikes me as simply good management and was an aspect of running a casino I had been unaware of. Of course, players don't care if machines they don't play are removed.

But there's no question that games many serious video poker players played are now gone, including the 25-cent full-pay deuces wild progressive, the 10/7 double bonus progressive and, now, all the 16/10 deuces wild on triple play/five play machines. The Palms was the last casino in Vegas to offer the latter, and they were what I usually played. I mentioned this, and my disappointment, to the slot manager, and he replied that some players had "hammered" the casino on these games. I pointed out that they are negative-return games (to the players), even with perfect play and taking into account the value of slot club points. Further, play on these machines has long been ineligible for qualifying for promotions, and for point multipliers. A few players might have been able to gain a very slight edge if you included the value of their mailers and promotions such as free pulls on Megabucks and Wheel of Fortune, but I can't see how anyone could have "hammered" the Palms on these machines. He really didn't have an answer when I pointed this out. In my opinion, the value to the Palms of continuing to be the only casino offering these enormously fun-to-play games would have been worth any small losses the casino might have incurred as a result of the play of a very few people.

One interesting thing the slot manager shared was his view of the difference between slot (reel) players and video poker players. He described slot players as seeking entertainment and excitement, and not concerned about coming out ahead in the long run as long as they get the excitement of chasing after (mostly small) bonuses and jackpots and occasionally winning. Video poker players, on the other hand, he clearly saw as economic adversaries -- people who expect to win and to get everything they can from the casino. For example, he said that many, many more reel players play without a players' club card, giving away any comps and marketing offers they might be entitled to. Many more video poker players use a card, he said, and use all the points they accrue. I think his views may be colored by the Palms' history as a mecca for serious video poker players. What he says is undoubtedly true for a segment of video poker players, but they are probably a small minority in most casinos. Many, many video poker players don't use players' cards, don't know much if anything about pay tables or game strategy, and believe that winning is just as much a matter of luck in video poker as it is in playing reels.

Still, his attitude is one that seems to reflect the thinking in the industry, which has become less generous to video poker players in the six or so years I've been playing that game. Video poker players used to get the same benefits as reel players -- the same point multipliers, the same coin-in requirements to qualify for gifts and benefits, etc. This has changed at most casinos, and I can't say it's entirely unfair. Even bad video poker players playing bad games lose less than most reel players, and video poker machines are generally faster than reel machines, meaning players can accumulate points faster. But casino mangers should keep in mind that the reel players who lose more may lose interest in gambling -- or run out of gambling money -- sooner. To the extent that the industry squeezes video poker players it jeopardizes a part of its customer base that is likely to provide a more stable, long-lasting source of income.

So what am I going to do now about the Palms? Barring further changes in the video poker lineup, I plan to continue playing there. The Palms still has a couple of games I'm interested in playing -- 16/10 deuces wild at $2 and 9/6 jacks or better at 25 cents on 10-play machines. Both of these games return more than 99.5 percent (the Palms' slot club points add 0.25 percent), and play on the jacks qualifies for promotions. At least one positive game is still available -- 10/7 double bonus. Compared to what the Palms used to have, it's current lineup is very disappointing. Compared to what most other casinos offer, its lineup is still competitive, especially combined with its promotions, even just those available to players of "non-promotional" machines. And I was surprised to find in my March mailer that my free play and dining offers had doubled in value from February. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the Palms is only a short walk across the street from the Gold Coast, a casino I usually visit several days a week.

However, just about any further cuts to the video poker at the Palms could change my plans. The slot manager I spoke with pointed out that players have a right to vote with their feet. That's a right I reserve, but hope not to have to use, concerning the Palms.

Bad news at the Palms

Since founder George Maloof lost control of the Palms, things have been going downhill, video poker-wise. First the full-pay deuces wild progressive came out; the $1 10/7 double bonus progressive was downgraded to 9/7, then removed; the $2 10/7 double bonus -- to my knowledge, the only positive game available in Vegas for more than $1 -- bit the dust. The $2 jack or better between the high-limit room and the Mint high-limit lounge, gone -- along with all the other video poker in that area, all replaced by slot machines.

On Wednesday I visited the Palms and went to play what has become my favorite game there, the $1 five-play "not so ugly" (16/10) deuces. For at least a couple of years, the Palms had been the only place you could play this good version of deuces on triple play/five machines. There was a group near the center of the casino and a couple more in the high-limit slot room. After playing my free Megabucks pulls on Wednesday I went to one of the triple play/five play machines on the main floor. Seeing the "this machine does not qualify for any promotions" sign still on the machine, I assumed the deuces were still 16/10 and began playing. Soon I noticed the deuces had been downgraded to 15/9, a reduction of about 0.9 percent to the players' return. In video poker this is a big deal.

I immediately cashed out and headed to the high limit room, where I was shocked to find an empty space where the last two triple play/five play machines had been. I asked the slot attendant what was going on and found here unsually forthcoming. She said she didn't know whether the triple play/five play machines were coming back but speculated they wouldn't, given the direction the new management was going. She said their focus was on penny slot players -- among the most helpless, pathetic gamblers (my words, not hers) -- and noted that all signs were that the Palms was headed toward becoming something like another Caesars Entertainment property. She said so many regular video poker players had left -- many of them in anger -- that she was surprised to still have a job.

It will be interesting to see what else the new management does to what had been one of the best places in the world to play video poker. If they stop the negative changes now, there's a good chance the Palms will still be worth visiting, though maybe not as often as before. But given what I've seen and heard, I can't be too optimistic that six months from now the Palms will still be on my dance card.

The Rio's marketing to locals

The Rio is one of the casinos in Las Vegas owned by Caesars Entertainment, formerly Harrah's, known to advantage players and other knowledgeable and value-oriented gamblers as The Evil Empire. Caesars' other Vegas properties are on the Strip and cater almost exclusively to out-of-towners. The company and its mostly second-rate properties are known for lousy games, chintzy comps and high prices, especially compared with the locals' casinos. It's been widely rumored for some time that the company would like to unload the Rio, and it has been marketing the property to locals for the past couple of months.

The Rio is part of a geographic cluster of three casinos west of the Strip on Flamingo. The others are the Palms and Gold Coast, both of which offer much better video poker but rather unattractive (to me) blackjack. I was surprised to learn a few months ago that the Rio offers a decent version of the game I prefer, double-deck with a $25 minimum. The main thing that makes the Rio's game attractive is the good penetration provided by most dealers, which makes up for the petty rule prohibiting doubling after split. I also like the absence of a side bet, which can slow the game down considerably, and the relatively liberal rules on spreading hands (playing two hands is allowed at any time with a bet of least twice the table minimum).

One of the few good things about Caesars overly complex yet stingy comp system (called Total Rewards) is that it is relatively transparent. I have asked about my comp balance a couple of times at the players' clubs. From this experience I have concluded that my blackjack play at an average $50 bet is worth less than $2 an hour in comps. But a couple of months ago I was surprised to get from the Rio not just the free bets that some other casinos send their table games players, but an entire mailer offering free slot play, gifts and hotel room nights. Conspicuously absent were any dining offers.

The three $20 free bet coupons I received for a one-month period required that I go to the cage, which exchanged each one for two $10 coupons to use at the tables. I was delighted to discover that these coupons were "play 'til you lose," not "one bet only, win or lose," like most other free bet and match play coupons. The dealers at the Rio let the coupons ride on winning bets and pushes, greatly increasing their value. The typical coupon is taken by the dealer after any hand except a push.

My most recent mailer also included "mystery" free slot play. I was surprised to see this because I had never played any slots or video poker at the Rio and had not played any video poker at any Caesars property in probably a year. At any rate, I was expecting a minimal amount, $3, maybe $5. I was surprised to get $10, although I had to earn it by standing on line at both the players' club and the cage, which took the coupon I received at the club and issed me a ticket to put into a machine. This is an unbelievably cumbersome and labor-intensive process that would break down if the Rio had a significant number of local customers trying to get their free play at any one time. (By comparison, free play at most casinos is loaded on players' accounts and avaible for download on most slot and video poker machines.)

Another problem is where to use the ticket. The best games in dollars at the Rio are 8/5 bonus poker and 9/7 double bonus, with 9/6 jacks or better at $5 in the high limit room. The dollar games in particular, at just over 99.1 percent return, are not competitive with those at the nearby Palms and Gold Coast, which have a wide selection of games returning very close to 100 percent.

I recently took up the Rio on an offer of two free room nights. The Rio is an all-suite hotel, and my room was large and comfortable. I was put off when making my reservation when the agent tried to charge me a $10 "processing fee," which is unbelievable chutzpah in view of the Caesars billboards in Vegas attacking other operators' resort fees. I protested this fee and it did not wind up on my bill.

On the plus side, the TV channel lineup included MSNBC, which in my experience is rarely available in Las Vegas hotel rooms, although Fox News almost always is. On the down side, Caesars squeezes the lemon when it comes to in-room coffee, making K cups available at three for $8.

A couple of brief news items concerning the Rio: 1. KJ, a new seafood and dim sum Chinese restaurant, has opened where the small bowling alley was, between the poker room and Carnival World Buffet. I'll review it when I earn enough comps for a dinner, in maybe three or four years. 2. A new, supposedly faster, beverage service system divides tasks of taking orders and delivering drinks between new "beverage ambassadors" -- a number of them male -- with electronic tablets and the traditional cocktail servers. The order-taking ambassadors are not allowed to take tips.

I first played blackjack at the Rio not expecting much except a game I could beat in the long run. Although the Rio remains uncompetitive with the locals' casinos in many crucial ways, it has provided me with surprising value and likely will remain on my rotation as long as I'm allowed to play blackjack there.

Barely off the Strip

This post is directed to serious blackjack and/or video poker players who are coming to Las Vegas and staying on or near the Strip, but looking for better games than the Strip casinos offer.

When it comes to blackjack, there are good games on the Strip, but the double-deck games are often available only at minimums of $25 and higher. There is little good video poker on the Strip, defined as games with 99.5 percent payback or better. Some Strip casinos do offer 9/6 jacks or better, but rarely at less than $5, unless you're willing to forgo comps (New York New York offers 9/6 Jacks at $1 and $2, but those machines don't accept a players club card).

This may come as a surprise, but Hooters offers some of the best video poker near the Strip. The good video poker is all on two banks of machines in front of the cage. Games include jacks or better (99.54 percent payback), "not so ugly" deuces wild (99.73 percent) and, on one machine only, double bonus deuces wild (99.81 percent). Slot club points for video poker accrue at a rate of one for every $3 coin in, but each dollar of free play costs only 100 points.

Hooters also offers $10-minimum double deck blackjack with typical locals casino rules and a 0.40 house edge. This game is not open all the time and is never on more than one table. Penetration varies by dealer.

This casino is a very short walk from the Strip at Tropicana, just east of the Tropicana hotel. It is easily accessible by the Monorail, which stops just across Tropicana Avenue at the MGM Grand.

Moving north, a longtime favorite of Strip casino workers and other locals is Ellis Island, a few minutes’ walk east of the Strip on Koval Lane just south of Flamingo Road. This casino, which got its name from founder Gary Ellis, features shoe and double deck blackjack games at $5 and video poker including “not so ugly” deuces at 25 cents and 9/6 jacks or better at up to $2. The casino building also houses a microbrewery, karaoke bar, restaurant, barbecue and Metro Pizza outlet. The casino and karaoke bars serve very generous drinks at moderate prices. Expect a wait at the restaurant (open 24 hours every day) and barbeque (open 4-10 p.m. every day). The restaurant is famous for its off-the-menu steak special, a 10-oz. filet-cut sirloin for $7.99, including an Ellis Island beer.

Farther east at Flamingo and Paradise Road, a fair walk or short bus or taxi ride from the Strip, is Terrible’s (named after founder “Terrible” Herbst, so-called by his competitors in the gas station business for undercutting their prices). The only video poker that meets the 99.5 percent criterion here is 9/6 jacks or better, at up to 50 cents, near the cashier. Double-deck blackjack is consistently offered at $10, based on my experience.

On the other side of the Strip, a long walk or short bus or taxi ride away, are the Palms and Gold Coast, directly across the street from each other. The Palms has one of the best and biggest selections of good video poker in Las Vegas, including a 25-cent full pay deuces wild (100.76 percent) progressive and a $1 full-pay double bonus (100.17 percent) progressive with progressives on the straight flush and quads as well as the royal flush. “Not so ugly” deuces and 9/6 jacks or better are available at pretty much all denominations, including on Triple Play/Five Play machines. Slot club points are worth a generous 0.25 percent.

The Palms also offers a range of blackjack games, including the variation Blackjack Switch. In the past double deck has been offered at $10, but I haven’t seen that for a while. Expect a minimum for double deck of $15 or even $25. Card counters would do better elsewhere; double deck penetration is set at 50 percent with a notch.

The Palms is a big, high-end property with lots of dining and entertainment options. On weekends it is filled with young club goers; during the week it draws an older crowd heavy with locals there for the good video poker and promotions.

The Gold Coast, across the street, has lots of $5 blackjack at all times with good Vegas rules (but consistently lousy penetration) and lots of good video poker, including 9/6 jacks, “not so ugly” deuces and double bonus deuces, at denominations of up to $2. A favorite of Chinese Americans, the Gold Coast has two Chinese restaurants among its dining options. Another nearby casino, the Orleans, is also part of the Coast group owned by Boyd Gaming. A free shuttle connects two and goes to the Strip at Flamingo as well.

Bracketing Las Vegas’ Chinatown area to the north, at Sahara Avenue at Interstate 15, is Palace Station, which offers blackjack with excellent rules and, usually, good penetration at as little as $5 for shoes and $10 for double deck. The selection of positive video poker games (found on machines labeled “Optimum Play” is less than at most other Station properties. To my recollection, no such games are offered at more than 50 cents, but like all things casino-related, that could change at any time.

Finally, the property most like a major Strip resort, but with much better games, is the Las Vegas Hilton, on Paradise Road east of the Strip and south of Sahara Avenue. The Hilton is a major property famous for its entertainment offerings and with excellent restaurants and full major-resort amenities.

The only downside concerning video poker at the Hilton is that all the good games are in the sports book area, which can be crowded, loud and smoky. The upside is the games themselves, including “not so ugly” deuces, loose deuce deuces wild (100.15 percent) and 9/6 jacks. All are offered at 25 cents and $1; the jacks are also offered at $5.

Blackjack at the Hilton is also excellent, with surrender offered not only on shoe games but also on double deck. Shoe games are sometimes offered at $5, usually at $10; double deck is offered at $25. Penetration for both is set by a notch, with about a deck and a third cut off for the six-deck game and about a third of the pack cut off the double-deck game.

The Hilton is a short walk from the Sahara or Riviera, and is accessible by the Monorail, which stops right at the hotel.

The joys of low volatility

Let’s say you’re a video poker player who normally plays moderately to highly volatile games, such double double bonus or “not so ugly” deuces at $1 or higher. Let’s assume further that you’ve run into a rough patch and are concerned about your dwindling bankroll. You know that if things continue to go south, you’re going to have to drop down in denomination, and you don’t want to do that.

That was the situation I was in a few months ago and I decided to take a different tack, which worked out well for me. I usually play NSU, “pseudo” NSU, double bonus deuces wild and loose deuce deuces wild at $1, sometimes on triple play machines.

As I wrote on this blog, a while ago I took the plunge and started playing what for me was a new game, jacks or better. The game has a lower long-term maximum payback than some of the other games I was playing, but it has the advantage of very low volatility. That means the fluctuations in amounts won and lost are relatively small. Unless you hit a royal flush, you’re generally not going to win much when you win, but compared with most other games you’re not going to lose much when you lose.

The downside to jacks is that the maximum long-term payback to the player is less than for the games I usually play (except for “pseudo,” but I play that mostly on progressives, when the jackpot adds significantly to the player’s return). But I found that because of the low volatility of jacks, I could comfortably play it at $2. My plan was to do just that, particularly when a good point multiplier would bring the return to about 100 percent. My hope was to hit a royal for $8,000, twice the amount I would get playing for $1, and solve my problem in one fell swoop.

Well, it worked! A few weeks, if that, into the “plan,” I hit for $8,000, bringing my bankroll most of the way back to where I wanted it to be. A few weeks later, I hit again, this time holding only two cards. Coincidentally, both of the big royals were in diamonds, my new favorite suit.

This was somewhat of a gamble, because you can lose quite a bit of money playing even jacks for $2. But it worked this time, and I have kept $2 jacks in my repertoire, playing it when point multipliers and/or other considerations make it a break-even play or better.

Another low volatility play I like: South Point has 50-play machines with NSU deuces in nickels in front of the oyster bar. (There are also 100-play machines with this game elsewhere in the casino). This is by far the best pay table I have seen anywhere on 50- or 100-plays; in fact, it’s the only playable pay table I’ve seen on these machines anywhere.

The bad news about this game is, if you hit the deuces, it’s $50. A royal flush without deuces is $200. The good news is that losses tend to be similarly small, especially considering the huge amount of money you’re putting through (which means you're earning lots of slot club points, particularly on point multiplier days). I can’t remember ever losing more than $500 in a session, and I usually play for at least an hour. On the other hand, you’re not likely to win a lot, unless you are dealt the deuces ($2,500) or a royal flush ($10,000). But if you’re more of a tortoise than a hare, this can be a very good game.

Mailer mystery solved

For several months my wife and I have played at a particular locals’ casino that offers 16/10 “not so ugly” deuces as well as a relatively obscure game that my wife plays and that pays back slightly more in the long run with perfect play than NSU. With point multipliers and other considerations, both these games can be positive for skilled players.

I was playing the NSU deuces exclusively, and she was playing the other game (I’m intentionally omitting details to avoid tipping off the casino to what has become an advantage play for us and apparently at least one other person). If anyone was playing more money through, it was me.

A couple of months ago she got a mailer from this casino that made our eyes bug out -- three $40 dining credits, $45 in free play several times a month, entry in a slot tournament, two free room nights. I got $5 in free play twice a month and a coupon for $2 off the buffet.

We couldn’t figure out why she was getting so much more until I realized that the games we were playing were on different machines. The machines with NSU also have other relatively good games on them, such as 9/6 jacks or better. The machines with the game she plays have a bunch of obscure games on them. I haven’t looked up the pay tables, but I assume they are not very good for the players. Also, this casino has a different version of the game my wife that pays back less to the players. It is on machines near the ones she plays.

According to the video poker author and teacher Bob Dancer, NSU deuces has become a favorite of players who make a living off the casinos. With point multipliers and other considerations, the game has a positive payback for skilled players, and the casinos obviously know this is a good game and one that can cost them money. I was being “punished” (by not being rewarded nearly as much as my wife) for playing this game.

But she was playing a game that actually returns more money to the player. I finally realized that the casino must be mistaken about the value of her game. We figured this casino groups games with similar paybacks on the same machines, and gives them all the same value for marketing purposes.  Perhaps the casino thinks the game on the machines my wife plays is the inferior version; perhaps whoever set the machines up just didn’t know how good this game is.

At any rate, my wife appears to be benefiting from some kind of casino error. I have started playing her game at this casino and stopped playing the NSU deuces. I am looking forward to getting a much better mailer from this casino.

Incidentally, I knew my thinking was on the right track when, on a recent visit to this casino, I saw Dancer playing on the bank of machines that my wife (and now I) play there. I unobtrusively walked behind him to see what game he was playing and, sure enough, it was the same one my wife plays.

Mystery solved!

Hello, Old Buddy

When the M Resort opened a little over a year ago, it had a video poker game I had never seen before. It was the same as 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces, except that it paid 15 instead of 16 for the five of a kind and 11 instead of 10 for the straight flush. These seemingly small changes bring the game's return with max coins bet and optimal play to 99.96 percent, compared with 99.73 percent for the 16/10 deuces. (The higher payout for the straight flush, which occurs more often, more than offsets the lower payout for the five of a kind.)

This game was available for a while at the M at quarters on triple play machines. That casino also had full pay deuces (100.76 percent payback) at the time, but only in single line quarters, and at one quarter the points awarded for playing most other games. The 15/11 or "almost positive" deuces were wildly popular. Then one day they were gone, to be followed by the M's 16/10 deuces.

Tonight I came across the 15/11 deuces at 50 cents at the Skyline, a small casino on Boulder Highway in Henderson. What's more, it's on a progessive. This game is break-even when the jackpot hits a whopping $2,054, as opposed to the base $2,000 for the 50 cent game.

I expect to be playing this one a lot.