An introduction to video poker progressives

Bob Dancer, the leading video poker authority and an active player, recently wrote a column for the Las Vegas Advisor (www.lasvegasadvisor.com) about why he does not play video poker progressives. His reasons were mostly matters of personal preference. He did not say that advantage players or other smart players should not play progressives, and many of us do. As time permits, I plan to write several blog posts about video poker and other progressives.

What is a progressive? Simply put, it's a game in which a small part of the money bet by the players goes into one or more growing jackpots. Progressives can be found in slots, video poker, keno (live and video) and table games. The concept has virtually unlimited possible applications in the casino environment.

Why would casinos allow progressives, rather than keep the money going into the jackpot for themselves? First, progressives allow casinos to offer larger than normal prizes to players. A full-coin royal flush in most 25-cent video poker games is $1,000; the royal in a quarter progressive starts at $1,000 and goes up from there, possibly to $2,000, $3,000 or more. Second, progressives, many of which have signs showing the amount of the jackpot, create excitement and attract players as they see the amount they might win growing rapidly.

Sounds like a win-win. The casino offers players more, but with the players' own money feeding the pot. But in reality, casinos often aren't willing to divert even a small percentage money wagered without making up for it -- or more than making up for it. With video poker, progressives are often found on games with substandard pay tables.

For example, a casino might offer as its best non-progressive game 9/6 (full pay) jacks or better, with a long-term maximum payback to players of 99.54 percent. A progressive game might be found on 8/5 jacks or better, with a maximum payback at reset of 97.30 percent. A big progressive jackpot can make this a good play, even a better long-term play than the 9/6 jacks, but you have to know when and how to play it. More about that later.

First, let's talk about how you find video poker progressives. Often they are advertised by electronic signs. These may be simply show dollar amounts or contain other information, such as the donomination of the game. Often these signs apply to a group of machines feeding into a single progressive jackpot. Progressives are also found on idvidual machines, in which case the only way to tell there is a progressive is to look at the pay table. The web site VPFree2 lists and gives locations for the better progressives at many casinos.

Many casinos offer progressives at their bars. Often there is a sign above the bar, or two signs if there are progressives of different denominations (typically quarters and dollars). Individual machines must be checked to see which progressives are on them (often only one denomination per machine). On multi-game machines, sometimes only one game will have the progressive, sometimes more than one or all the games will. Usually the screen that appears after you push the "more games" button will show which games have the progressive, and sometimes the jackpot amount.

At many casinos progressives can be found on the casino floor. Often there are signs, some quite elaborate, above banks of machines with progressives games. But as at the bars, you have to look at the pay tables to find some progressives.

You can go into many casinos and find several video poker progressives at popular denomiations. How can you tell which ones -- if any -- are good plays? A huge jackpot alone does not make a progressive a good play.

First, you must know that there are several versions of most popular video poker games, and that changes in pay tables can have a big effect on the payback of the game. A big factor in finding good video poker progressives is find progressives with good pay tables.

But, as noted earlier, even progressives with relatively bad pay tables, such as 8/5 jacks, can be good plays. A big progressive jackpot can make up for lower return of the underlying game. For example, the break-even point of a 25-cent 9/6 progressive -- the amount of the royal flush that brings the long-term return of the game to 100 percent -- is $1,220. The break-even amount for 8/5 jacks is a whopping $2,166.

The break-even amounts, of most versions of most video poker games can be found in the Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht (RGE Publishing, Ltd.), which also contains almost 200 pay schedules and the maximum return for each game. The return of different games, including progressives, can also be determined using the software Video Poker for Winners, which, like the Scouting Guide, should be used by every serious video poker player.

In the field, you can estimate the return of a progressive game by adding 0.5 percent to the payback of the base game for every 1,000 coins added to the amount of the royal flush. For example, let's say you find a progressive on a $1 15/9 "pseudo not-do-ugly" deuces game with the royal at $6,000. The return on the underlying game is about just over 98.9 percent. The 2,000 coins added to the royal adds about 1 percent to the return of the game, leaving it just short of break-even, not counting the value of points and/or other icentives the casino might provide. According to the Scouting Guide, the actual break-even amount for this game is $6,244.

It's important to keep in mind that the return of any progressive is a long-term theoretical concept. You will get or exceed that return only after hitting your share of royal flushes and other rare hands. This is not likely to happen in one or a few sessions or weeks or months playing progressives. In most video poker games, a royal flush occurs very roughly once every 40,000 hands. For a fast player, that's once every 50 hours. And that's the average. You can and will go multiples of that many hours between royals if you become a serious player.

In the real world, a 9/6 jacks progressive at break-even and an 8/5 jacks progressive of the same denomination at break-even are far from equal. You will lose a lot more money between royals playing the latter than the former. That means you will need more money to play the latter, to survive the deeper negative swings. If you normally play 9/6 jacks for dollars, you might want to consider 8/5 jacks progressives only for 50 cents or less.

Another consideration is that the optimum strategies for different versions of the same games are different. If you normally play 9/6 jacks and want to play an 8/5 jacks progressive, to get even the meager return of the base game, you'll have to learn some changes from 9/6 strategy. In either version of jacks, further strategy changes are needed as the progressive jackpot grows to maximize the return of the game. (The work required to learn these strategy changes is one reason Dancer does not play progressives. He does not usually feel comfortable playing any less than perfect strategy.)

For these reasons, I tend to be very selective about the progressives I monitor and play. I usually won't play for any length of time any progressive where the underlying game pays back much less than 99 percent. I also look for progressives on games with strategies similar to those of the non-progressive games I normally play. One of my main non-progressive games is 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces wild. I'm comfortable playing progressives on 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces, which has a similar strategy. The other progressives I play most are on 16/10 deuces, 9/6 jacks and 8/5 bonus poker (with a stategy similar to that for 9/6 jacks).

There are other factors in deciding which progressives to play, and even more in deciding when to start playing. I'll discuss those in future posts.

The joys of low volatility

Let’s say you’re a video poker player who normally plays moderately to highly volatile games, such double double bonus or “not so ugly” deuces at $1 or higher. Let’s assume further that you’ve run into a rough patch and are concerned about your dwindling bankroll. You know that if things continue to go south, you’re going to have to drop down in denomination, and you don’t want to do that.

That was the situation I was in a few months ago and I decided to take a different tack, which worked out well for me. I usually play NSU, “pseudo” NSU, double bonus deuces wild and loose deuce deuces wild at $1, sometimes on triple play machines.

As I wrote on this blog, a while ago I took the plunge and started playing what for me was a new game, jacks or better. The game has a lower long-term maximum payback than some of the other games I was playing, but it has the advantage of very low volatility. That means the fluctuations in amounts won and lost are relatively small. Unless you hit a royal flush, you’re generally not going to win much when you win, but compared with most other games you’re not going to lose much when you lose.

The downside to jacks is that the maximum long-term payback to the player is less than for the games I usually play (except for “pseudo,” but I play that mostly on progressives, when the jackpot adds significantly to the player’s return). But I found that because of the low volatility of jacks, I could comfortably play it at $2. My plan was to do just that, particularly when a good point multiplier would bring the return to about 100 percent. My hope was to hit a royal for $8,000, twice the amount I would get playing for $1, and solve my problem in one fell swoop.

Well, it worked! A few weeks, if that, into the “plan,” I hit for $8,000, bringing my bankroll most of the way back to where I wanted it to be. A few weeks later, I hit again, this time holding only two cards. Coincidentally, both of the big royals were in diamonds, my new favorite suit.

This was somewhat of a gamble, because you can lose quite a bit of money playing even jacks for $2. But it worked this time, and I have kept $2 jacks in my repertoire, playing it when point multipliers and/or other considerations make it a break-even play or better.

Another low volatility play I like: South Point has 50-play machines with NSU deuces in nickels in front of the oyster bar. (There are also 100-play machines with this game elsewhere in the casino). This is by far the best pay table I have seen anywhere on 50- or 100-plays; in fact, it’s the only playable pay table I’ve seen on these machines anywhere.

The bad news about this game is, if you hit the deuces, it’s $50. A royal flush without deuces is $200. The good news is that losses tend to be similarly small, especially considering the huge amount of money you’re putting through (which means you're earning lots of slot club points, particularly on point multiplier days). I can’t remember ever losing more than $500 in a session, and I usually play for at least an hour. On the other hand, you’re not likely to win a lot, unless you are dealt the deuces ($2,500) or a royal flush ($10,000). But if you’re more of a tortoise than a hare, this can be a very good game.

Mailer mystery solved

For several months my wife and I have played at a particular locals’ casino that offers 16/10 “not so ugly” deuces as well as a relatively obscure game that my wife plays and that pays back slightly more in the long run with perfect play than NSU. With point multipliers and other considerations, both these games can be positive for skilled players.

I was playing the NSU deuces exclusively, and she was playing the other game (I’m intentionally omitting details to avoid tipping off the casino to what has become an advantage play for us and apparently at least one other person). If anyone was playing more money through, it was me.

A couple of months ago she got a mailer from this casino that made our eyes bug out -- three $40 dining credits, $45 in free play several times a month, entry in a slot tournament, two free room nights. I got $5 in free play twice a month and a coupon for $2 off the buffet.

We couldn’t figure out why she was getting so much more until I realized that the games we were playing were on different machines. The machines with NSU also have other relatively good games on them, such as 9/6 jacks or better. The machines with the game she plays have a bunch of obscure games on them. I haven’t looked up the pay tables, but I assume they are not very good for the players. Also, this casino has a different version of the game my wife that pays back less to the players. It is on machines near the ones she plays.

According to the video poker author and teacher Bob Dancer, NSU deuces has become a favorite of players who make a living off the casinos. With point multipliers and other considerations, the game has a positive payback for skilled players, and the casinos obviously know this is a good game and one that can cost them money. I was being “punished” (by not being rewarded nearly as much as my wife) for playing this game.

But she was playing a game that actually returns more money to the player. I finally realized that the casino must be mistaken about the value of her game. We figured this casino groups games with similar paybacks on the same machines, and gives them all the same value for marketing purposes.  Perhaps the casino thinks the game on the machines my wife plays is the inferior version; perhaps whoever set the machines up just didn’t know how good this game is.

At any rate, my wife appears to be benefiting from some kind of casino error. I have started playing her game at this casino and stopped playing the NSU deuces. I am looking forward to getting a much better mailer from this casino.

Incidentally, I knew my thinking was on the right track when, on a recent visit to this casino, I saw Dancer playing on the bank of machines that my wife (and now I) play there. I unobtrusively walked behind him to see what game he was playing and, sure enough, it was the same one my wife plays.

Mystery solved!

Hello, Old Buddy

When the M Resort opened a little over a year ago, it had a video poker game I had never seen before. It was the same as 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces, except that it paid 15 instead of 16 for the five of a kind and 11 instead of 10 for the straight flush. These seemingly small changes bring the game's return with max coins bet and optimal play to 99.96 percent, compared with 99.73 percent for the 16/10 deuces. (The higher payout for the straight flush, which occurs more often, more than offsets the lower payout for the five of a kind.)

This game was available for a while at the M at quarters on triple play machines. That casino also had full pay deuces (100.76 percent payback) at the time, but only in single line quarters, and at one quarter the points awarded for playing most other games. The 15/11 or "almost positive" deuces were wildly popular. Then one day they were gone, to be followed by the M's 16/10 deuces.

Tonight I came across the 15/11 deuces at 50 cents at the Skyline, a small casino on Boulder Highway in Henderson. What's more, it's on a progessive. This game is break-even when the jackpot hits a whopping $2,054, as opposed to the base $2,000 for the 50 cent game.

I expect to be playing this one a lot.

Learning a new video poker game

My wife and I both started gambling more or less seriously as blackjack players, but about four years ago, when we started coming to Las Vegas for vacations, she decided to start playing video poker. As a music teacher, she was going to approach this like learning a new instrument, which meant practicing until she could play well. But first she had to decide which video poker game to learn.

Many experts suggest learning jacks or better first. Full pay or 9/6 jacks is easy to learn. It is widely available in all popular denominations. Most important, it is the basis for many other popular games, including bonus poker, double bonus poker and double double bonus poker. The big drawback of jack is its payback -- 99.54 percent with optimum play.

She became interested in full pay deuces wild, mostly because of its strongly positive payback -- 100.76 percent. Full pay deuces is harder to learn than full pay jacks, but not extremely difficult. It’s also more volatile -- wider swings of wins and losses -- but not dangerously so. The game was available almost exclusively in quarters, but that is what she wanted to play. And it was more widely available then than it is now and the casinos were giving more points and other comps for those playing it.

She decided to learn full-pay deuces, and it served her well. When we moved to Vegas three years ago, I followed in her footsteps. We both later learned other deuces games, including loose deuce deuces wild and “not so ugly” (16/10) deuces, which allowed us to play at the dollar level.

Recently we decided to take another look at 9/6 jacks, mostly because it is now the best game available at some of the casinos we want to play at, including the M Resort. And we have discovered some good full pay jacks progressives.

I have started playing using the simple strategy found on Wizard of Odds Web site (I learned to play the full pay deuces using the Wizard’s simple strategy for that game). This strategy uses words, which I am more comfortable with than the symbols used in the more advanced strategies. There’s a trade-off in payback -- the simple strategy gets you 99.4 percent instead of the game’s full potential, 99.54 percent. But it’s a good stopgap until I can learn the advanced strategy.

As casinos change their video poker inventories and the rewards they offer for playing different games, it is necessary to learn new games to take advantage of new opportunities. Fortunately, learning jacks or better has been -- so far -- a lot easier than I had expected.

Full-pay deuces wild for more than a quarter

Full-pay deuces wild offers, far and away, the best percentage return to the skilled play of any widely available video poker game. With perfect play it yields 100.76 percent. It's relatively easy to learn, and it's loads of fun to play. But in recent years, full-pay deuces players have run into some roadblocks.

As more people have learned to play the game well enough to beat it, casinos have taken countermeasures. Most give reduced reward points for playing full-pay deuces and other positive games; at least one, the
Gold Coast, gives no points at all (the Palms, acorss the street, still gives full points for play on positive games). Some, such as Sam's Town, have set the speed on their full-pay deuces at slow. Station casinos no longer mail calendars with free play, point multipliers and other offers to those who play only positive machines. And of course, some casinos have simply taken these games out. (This is one example of the best games being at locals' casinos; there is no full-pay deuces anywhere on the Strip.)

Because players can make money from this game, many would like to play it at high denominations. And because players can make money from this game, almost all casinos have eliminated full-pay deuces for anything more than quarters. At this denomination, a player who pushes $1,000 an hour through the machine can average a maximum of $7.60 an hour. This isn't enough to interest the professionals who can do a casino's bottom line some real damage.

At this time I know of no casinos that offer full-pay deuces for more than quarters. But I do know of two small casinos in Henderson that have machines that allow maximum bets of 10 coins rather than five, effectively making them 50-cent full-pay deuces machines. Neither of these casinos has a slot club, so players earn no points that can be used for comps, cash back or free play. (They do have promotions that can add to the return of the game.)

I noticed a few machines with this game recently during my first visit to Peppermill's Rainbow on Water Street downtown. There are no signs to help you spot these games; you'll have to look for the pay table and "bet 10" on the screen.

The other casino with these games is the Skyline on Boulder Highway just south of Sunset Road. Its machines are old coin droppers outfitted with bill acceptors along the back wall and in the "Deuces Wild Corral." The face plates above the screens say in large characters "Win 8,000 coins." The pay table is printed on the glass. A short cut for spotting full-pay deuces that it's the only version of the game that pays 5 instead of four for four of a kind.

These machines are a bit slow by modern standards, and if you hit the four deuces for $500, you'll have to wait for a hand pay. When you cash out, the machine will drop a load of quarters, which you'll have to take to the cashier's cage to be converted to bills.