Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Should you be impressed?

At least two locals' casinos have in recent months advertised their large numbers of video poker games returning 99 percent or more. At first glance, 1 percent sounds like a pretty thin profit margin. But what does 99 percent return really mean?

It most certainly does not mean that if you play one of these casinos' 99 percent payback games, you can bring, say $100 for a session and expect to lose an average of only $1. This is because the 1 percent applies to the money you cycle through the machine and not the amount you put into the bill acceptor.

Let's say you play for quarters. At max coin, which you must play to get the 99 percent return, you're betting $1.25 a hand. Some hands result in a loss; $1.25 is deducted from your credits. But some hands are winners, resulting in additions, some quite substantial, to your credits. With a little luck, after an hour and, say, 800 hands, you haven't had to feed the machine anything other than your original $100. But you've put $1,000, including recyled winnings, though the machine. At 99 percent payback, your theoretical loss is $10 -- 10 percent, not 1 percent, of your $100 buy-in. After an average of 10 hours of play, on average, 100 percent of your original $100 will be gone, a return of 0 percent, not 99 percent.

And your $100 may not last nearly that long. Returns stated for video poker games assume perfect play, which few players can approach; strategy errors can multiply the house's 1 percent take. Returns also assume maximum coin betting at all times. This is because of the premium for a royal flush with max bet, which is a significant part of the overall return of any video poker game. And the stated returns are long-term mathematical averages; what serious gamblers call variance or fluctuation (and ploppies, or novices, call luck) can make any session or number of sessions much worse (or better) than average.

On the other hand, stated returns are for only the games themselves and do not include the value players receive in the form of slot club points or other benefits. For example, the Orleans, one of the casinos that touts its 99 percent games, offers point multipliers of up to nine times. With base points worth 0.1 percent, nine times brings the theoretical return of a 99 percent game to a much more acceptable 99.9 percent. (Points can be converted to cash or free play or for comps.) In the above example, this reduces the average hourly loss from $10 to $1.

At most locals' casinos, the returns of many video poker games fall in the range of a little under 99 percent to a little over 100 percent. To the casual player, it doesn't make much difference. The main thing that determines winning or losing in the short run is variance. But to regular, serious players, the real questions are where in the range is the payback of a game and what is the casino doing to add to the players' return. If a game's payback is near the low end of the range, they will play it only if a point multiplier, progressive jackpot or other benefit significantly increases the total return.

Another thing to keep in mind: A casino that advertises that it has many, many games with 99 percent payback or better also is likely to have many, many games with payback that are worse. There are numerous versions of all major video poker games, and some pay back players much less than others. The return of a particular game is determined by the pay table, which can be found on outside of the machine or on the screen. You must know which pay tables for the games you play offer acceptable returns.

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