Insurance

Playing blackjack recently at Sunset Station, I was reminded of one of the most widespread misconceptions among not only players but the dealers who advise them.

The dealer was showing an ace and the count was high. I put chips amounting to half my bet on the insurance line (no one else at the table did), and the dealer flipped a 10 for the dreaded blackjack. Except for one who had blackjack and pushed, every other player but me lost his bet. My insurance bet paid 2-to-1, conveniently covering the main bet I lost and leaving me, effectively, with a push.

One of the players asked the dealer to explain insurance, which he did pretty well. If the dealer has an ace up, players can put half their bet or less on the insurance line. If the dealer has blackjack, a full insurance bet covers the lost main bet, leaving the player whole. If the dealer doesn't have blackjack, the insurance bet loses, and play of the round continues normally, with the main bet winning or losing based on the player's and dealer's hands.

Then the dealer said something I've heard dozens of times even though it makes no sense at all. You should insure a good hand, he told the player -- unless you want to gamble. Many players believe you should insure a had such as two 10-value cards but never a bad hand such as two small cards. (Many players also believe you should never hit a soft 18, another part of "folk" basic strategy that is wrong.)

Here's why that belief is wrong: The insurance bet has nothing to do with the player's hand. It is a bet on whether the dealer has blackjack. If the dealer has BJ, the insurance bet wins, no matter what the player's hand. If the dealer doesn't have BJ, the player loses the insurance bet no matter how good his hand is. In fact, as the authors of "Knock-Out Blackjack" point out, if a player has two 10-value cards, that's two less cards available for the dealer to get and make blackjack with, meaning the odds of winning the insurance bet are actually less when the player has such a hand than when he has, say, a 7 and 8.

So what to do about insurance? Unless you're a card counter, don't ever take it. It's a good bet only when the remaining deck or shoe is particularly rich in 10-value cards, and unless you are counting you have no way of knowing when this is. The cards in your hand have no significant effect on the dealer's likelihood of making a BJ, which is all the insurance bet is about. So don't ever insure a "good" hand unless you're counting, but be ready to hear "you should have taken insurance" if the dealer has BJ against your pair of monkeys.