Un-Fortunato for me

A few months ago I noticed a new slot progressive at Green Valley Ranch called Fortunato, which gives players at 18 $1 slot machines a chance to win three bonues, including one of a minimum of $10,000 and a maximum of $30,000.

I began watching the big electronic sign over the machines advertising the progressive bonuses when the big one reached about $16,000, thinking I would play it when it got close to $28,000. It took several weeks, but a couple of weeks ago it happened.

I knew that, mathematically, these "must hit by" progressives become a really strong play only when the meter gets very near the maximum -- in this case, $30,000. I also knew, having played similar set-ups before, that the meter usually moves a lot slower than you would think.

But I took a few other factors into account in deciding to jump on. First, the potential gain was huge. Second, the machines at the point were getting very little play. And third, I realized that several of the machines could be played with one coin, meaning a bet of $1 a spin -- less than the $1.25 a hand wagered by 25-cent video poker players betting max coin.

If that's confusing, let me try to explain. Video poker machines, and most slot machines, allow players to bet more or more "coins." In video poker, the range is usually 1 to 5 coins. In dollar slots, such as those in the Fortunato, it's usually 1 or 2 or 1 to 3 coins.

In video poker, a player who bets less than full coin is penalized severely if he hits a royal flush. That's because the return per coint for 1 to 4 coins is generally 250 per coin, but the royal pays 4,000 coins with max coin bet. If the payoff the the royal increased proportionately with each coin bet, as is the case for all other paying hands, the payoff for a royal with five coins bet would be only 1,250.

Some, but not all, slot machines similarly penalize players who bet less than the maximum. Usually all payouts but the top one increase proportionately with each coin bet, but sometimes, as in video poker, the top-ranking combination pays extra if max coin is bet.

I found one two-coin machine in the Fortunato that paid exactly proportionately for the top combination with a single coin bet, and several others where the bonus for playing max coin was negligable. The pay table for the machine with no penalty also suggested that it would have relatively low volatility, meaning fewer big ups and downs. I was most concerned about mimimizing my losses because I figured the machines in the Fortunato would be very tight to accommodate the progressive bonuses.

Long story short: I played the Fortunato for five or six days, dropping everything else the last three days or so. Until the last night, there weren't many players on it. The night before the progressive popped, I was able to play alone for several hours. The last day a few more people showed up and played longer. In talking with some of them I learned that they were regular slot players, not professional gamblers.

By the final night I did recognize one pro, and a few other people obviously had made the commitment I had to see it through to the end. Most were playing two machines.

The big bonus finally popped at about 2:15 a.m., with meter around $29,400. I was not the lucky winner.

I was a lilttle disappointed not to win after almost certainly putting in more time than any other player. But I know that on any progressive you have a small chance of winning unless you are the only one playing when it hits or are part of a team that has control of all  of the machines. The question was whether this was a good play, one that justified the time and expenditure involved.

My answer to myself was yes, that I will probably do the same thing the next time the bonus gets that high. As a video poker player who often plays for $25 a hand, I found the loss I incurred very bearable, and I am hoping the casino will give me a much better mailer next month because my play this month will be mostly on slots, not video poker.

As casinos tighten up on video poker and other recognized opportunities for advantage play, players need to widen their horizons in the search for profitable gambling opportunities. I plan to try to learn more about slot progressives, which might well offer some good plays into the future.