Video poker progressives: When to start playing, when to stop

Let's begin with the premise that we want to play video poker progressives to make a long-term profit. We've discussed how to determine when a progressive is at break-even, using the Video Poker Scouting Guide, the Video Poker for Winners software or Bob Dancer's rough rule of thumb. The only time we would want to play a game that's below break-even is when incentives supplied by the casino make the total return above 100 percent.

Aside from this basic rule, when to start playing is mostly a matter of personal preference that depends upon a player's answers to these questions:

1. What alternatives are available, in terms of other video poker plays, other gambling opportunities and other uses of time?

2. What is the player's long-term expectation of hourly earnings from playing progressives?

3. How fast is the meter rise of the progressive in question?

4. At what point is there a danger of being shut out of the action by other players?

The first question, I think, is pretty self-explanatory.

As to the second, here is how to figure earnings per hour from a particular play, progressive or not. First, determine the payback of the game. Let's say it's a progressive is at break even. The casino awards points at a with a value of 0.1 percent, but today is offering five times points. Playing today also earns drawing tickets and is helps satisfy the requirements for future offers. Let's guess the value of these benefits at 0.2 percent. So the total return of this game, assuming, as always, playing accurately according to the proper strategy, is 100.7 percent.

A moderately fast player plays about 700 hands an hour. Multiply that or the actual number of hands you play by the amount wagered per hand. For a dollar player, that's $5, or $300 an hour. 0.7 percent of that amount, of $21, is the long-term hourly earning expectation from playing that progressive with the jackpot at the amount upon which we figured the return of the game.

But the nature of progressives is that the jackpot grows. Question 3 refers to the rate of that growth as a percentage of the money played through. Usually, the only way to find this rate is to determine it yourself. For progressives on more than one machine, this must be done when no one else is playing. Simply keep track of how much the meter moves with, say each two hands ($10 on a dollar progressive) or eight hands ($10 on a quarter progressive) played.

The actual rate at which the meter will rise when more than one machine is inolved depends not only on the meter rise, but on how many machines are being played and how fast they are being played. But meter rise is an important factor in comparng progressives. All other things being equal, a progressive with a faster meter rise is more desirable than one with a slower meter rise.

The existence of meter rise means that, in the above example, $21 is only that starting hourly rate for playing that progressive. As it is being played, the hourly rate of return will increase steadily. So it makes sense to start playing when the hourly rate is somewhat below the average you want to make.

My final question, No. 4, can be answered only on the basis of experience with particular progressives, or with accurate information obtained from someone with such experience. Observing once or twice when a particular progressive begings to fill up might not be enough because interested players might not always learn immediately that a progressive has reached their strike point. What you want to figure out is the minimum amount on the meter that is likely to attract a crowd.

That's my basic approach to determing when to start playing. What about when to stop?

If I'm playing a progressive "early," before getting a seat is a concern, I play until I haver something better to do. But at some point, you want to make a commitment to stay until the progressive is hit or you physically can't play any longer.

When to do this is basically a matter of guesswork. The key thing to keep in mind is that there is no way to predict when a progressive will be hit. Progressives are often found at casino bars, and bartenders, trying to be helpful, have told me more than once that, based on their experience, a progressive should be about to pop or is overdue to be hit.

This is nonsense. When the royal comes is determined by a random number generator, which has no knowledge of how long it's been since the last royal flush or what amount is showing on the meter. The liklihood of a player getting a royal flush on a particular hand is exactly the same whether he or she got a royal on the previous hand or hasn't had one in months.

 Often a juicy progressive will last longer than one person can stay awake. Having an arrangement to trade of with one or more other players can keep you in the game longer than going it alone. Just be sure you have a complete agreement with your teammates on all relevant terms.