Pie Oh My
In Vegas, the day before Thanksgiving ought to be declared a new holiday -- Pie Day. Almost every locals casino gives away pies on that day. Typically, regular players get a free pie; others get a pie after earning a set number of points. At some places, players can get both a free pie and an earned pie. Although we got a late start and pies weren't our priority, my spouse and I managed to pick up five pies on Wednesday. If we had planned our day around pies instead of point multipliers, we easily could have gotten at least five more.
One casino, South Point, gave out turkeys before Thanksgiving instead of pies. Players had to earn 1,100 points during certain days to get a certificate good for a turkey and serving platter. Points at South Point are earned at a rate of one per dollar of coin in. The video poker at quarters through $2 is excellent, including games paying back 99.73 percent. The expected loss on $1,100 coin in on such a game is $3 and change, a pretty good price for a 13-pound turkey.
Coupon Clarity
The night before Thanksgiving, I went through my "food stamps" to see which ones could be used on Thanksgiving. Food stamps are what we call the coupons for dining credits that casinos include in their mailers are that are obtained through promotions. Often these have restrictions, such as "not valid on holidays."
It's pretty clear that Thanksgiving is a holiday, but what about Mothers Day? or Columbus Day? I've often wondered why the casinos can't list the specific dates on which these offers are not valid.
The food stamps from Caesars Entertainment are the worst in this regard. They say there may be blackout dates, inclding holidays and during conventions. Am I supposed to know when the big conventions are taking place, and which ones trigger invalidity of a dining offer? And if I call the casino or even the restaurant I want to go to, am I likely to reach an employee who can give me an accurate answer?
I understand that some offers are going to come with restrictions on when they can be used, but a guiding principle of casino management should be not to disappoint customers unnecessarily. If exclusions are stated with specificity and clarity, people are not likely to be disappointed; if they are, they have only themselves to blame for not reading the offer.
Note to Caesars management: Why not set up a Web site with accurate information on when and where customers' dining offers can be used, if they can't be stated on the actual coupon?
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Multiplier madness
Thanksgiving is approaching, and many casinos are offering point multipliers for play on the holiday, meaning it will be a very long workday for me.
Point multipliers are one of the most common casino promotions. They can be quite valuable for both the casino and for players who know how to take advantage of them.
To understand point multipliers, you first have to know what points are, and that isn't as easy as it might seem. Basically, points are a form of reward for play given by casinos. But what they can be used for and how they are earned vary considerably among casinos.
What follows is a look at the Station Casinos point system, which is very similar to the Boyd Gaming casinos system. These are the to major chains of locals casinos in the Las Vegas area.
At Station properties, which include the Fiesta and Wildfire properties, points are earned (technically) at a rate of one per dollar of coin in on most machines. I say technically because all players are entitled to three times points all the time. Chairman, president and platinum players get this multiplier automatically; gold and preferred players must swipe their player card at a kiosk to activate it. Points on 100 percent payback games are earned at a rate of $1 coin in per point. These games are inelgible for multipliers.
Points may be redeemed at a rate of 1,000 per dollar for comps, free play or cash. Players get a discount at the buffet when paying with points of up to 50 percent, depending on card level.
The video poker game I usually play at Station and Fiesta properties is "not so ugly" deuces wild, which pays back 99.7 percent. This game is basically break even with the usual three times points, which add 0.3 percent to the return.
Stations offers various point multipliers besides the every day three times. Some are available to anyone who shows up and swipes a player card; others are for invited guests only. Some are "mystery multipliers," the value of which is revealed when the the player's card is swiped at a kiosk.
In my experience, these multipliers range from four times to six times points on video poker. "Public" multipliers on reel slots range up to 10 times. I don't know what multipliers reel slot players get from their mailers, but I wouldn't be surpised if someone who plays penny slots exclusively were to get more than 10 times points. These games hold at least 10 percent of money played through, and 10 times points at Stations is worth 1 percent.
Any multiplier above the everyday three times must be activated at a kiosk. The multiplier is based on a 0.1 base, not on 0.3. So a six times multiplier is worth 0.6 percent. This makes the not so ugly deuces worth 100.3 percent instead of the usual 100 percent even.
What this is worth is dollars depends on the denomination you play and on how fast you play. Let's say you play dollars (the highest denomination of this game at Stations properties) at max coin, meaning you're betting $5 a hand. Let's further assume you play a fast 800 hands an hour, meaning you put through $4,000. Multiplying this amount by 100.3 shows that you're earning $12 an hour from this play, not counting other benefits the casino may give you, such as future free play in a mailer, gifts, food coupons, drawing entries, etc.
One good thing about Station multipliers is that there is no limit on the amount of points you can earn. The Boyd casinos, Station's main competitor, offers higher multipliers (as much as 50 times on reel slots and 30 times on video poker), but with limits. At Boyd downtown properties (the California, Fremont and Main Street Station) the limit is usually 100,000 total points, with the multiplier. At Boyd's Coast Casinos (the Gold Coast, Suncoast, Orleans and Sam's Town), the limit is usually 10,000 base points multiplied.
But the good news is that some of these properties offer games that can be positive with multipliers at much higher denominations than Stations, including not so ugly deuces at up to $5 at the Fremont and full pay jacks or better (99.5 percent payback) at up to $5 at the California, Gold Coast and Sam's Town.
At some other locals casinos, including the M, South Point and Silverton, base points are worth 0.3 percent. At these casinos, two times points is equal in value to six times points at Station and Boyd properties. South Point doesn't offer point multipliers very often, but when it does, there is no limit on points earned and there are some good games, including $2 not so ugly deuces, to earn them on. Tbe M offers very frequent multipliers of two times on video poker and, in my experience, 12 times on reels. The problem here is that the games are tight, the best return before points being 99.4 percent on Ace$ bonus poker. Silverton has not offered multipliers on video poker for some time but goes to at least 10 times on reels.
These casinos' point systems are all similar in that points can be used for cash back, free play or comps. In some other systems, points can be used only for cash back or free play, and comps are earned separately from points. Such systems are used by several downtown Las Vegas casinos, including the Golden Nugget, D and Four Queens. Also at these casinos, points are generally earned at a rate of one per $10 of coin in and redeemed at a rate of 100 points per dollar, for a rate of 0.1 percent.
Before taking up a casino's offer of a point multiplier, it's a good idea to read the fine print in your mailer or at the players club. Write down your points balance before you start playing, and the number of base points earned. Then check on the machine or a kiosk or at the players club to make sure you got the proper multiplier.
A final word of advice: Some casinos, including South Point, do not look kindly at those who play only on point muliplier days. Over the years, some who made that mistake at South Point found when they returned that their player card no longer worked.
Point multipliers are one of the most common casino promotions. They can be quite valuable for both the casino and for players who know how to take advantage of them.
To understand point multipliers, you first have to know what points are, and that isn't as easy as it might seem. Basically, points are a form of reward for play given by casinos. But what they can be used for and how they are earned vary considerably among casinos.
What follows is a look at the Station Casinos point system, which is very similar to the Boyd Gaming casinos system. These are the to major chains of locals casinos in the Las Vegas area.
At Station properties, which include the Fiesta and Wildfire properties, points are earned (technically) at a rate of one per dollar of coin in on most machines. I say technically because all players are entitled to three times points all the time. Chairman, president and platinum players get this multiplier automatically; gold and preferred players must swipe their player card at a kiosk to activate it. Points on 100 percent payback games are earned at a rate of $1 coin in per point. These games are inelgible for multipliers.
Points may be redeemed at a rate of 1,000 per dollar for comps, free play or cash. Players get a discount at the buffet when paying with points of up to 50 percent, depending on card level.
The video poker game I usually play at Station and Fiesta properties is "not so ugly" deuces wild, which pays back 99.7 percent. This game is basically break even with the usual three times points, which add 0.3 percent to the return.
Stations offers various point multipliers besides the every day three times. Some are available to anyone who shows up and swipes a player card; others are for invited guests only. Some are "mystery multipliers," the value of which is revealed when the the player's card is swiped at a kiosk.
In my experience, these multipliers range from four times to six times points on video poker. "Public" multipliers on reel slots range up to 10 times. I don't know what multipliers reel slot players get from their mailers, but I wouldn't be surpised if someone who plays penny slots exclusively were to get more than 10 times points. These games hold at least 10 percent of money played through, and 10 times points at Stations is worth 1 percent.
Any multiplier above the everyday three times must be activated at a kiosk. The multiplier is based on a 0.1 base, not on 0.3. So a six times multiplier is worth 0.6 percent. This makes the not so ugly deuces worth 100.3 percent instead of the usual 100 percent even.
What this is worth is dollars depends on the denomination you play and on how fast you play. Let's say you play dollars (the highest denomination of this game at Stations properties) at max coin, meaning you're betting $5 a hand. Let's further assume you play a fast 800 hands an hour, meaning you put through $4,000. Multiplying this amount by 100.3 shows that you're earning $12 an hour from this play, not counting other benefits the casino may give you, such as future free play in a mailer, gifts, food coupons, drawing entries, etc.
One good thing about Station multipliers is that there is no limit on the amount of points you can earn. The Boyd casinos, Station's main competitor, offers higher multipliers (as much as 50 times on reel slots and 30 times on video poker), but with limits. At Boyd downtown properties (the California, Fremont and Main Street Station) the limit is usually 100,000 total points, with the multiplier. At Boyd's Coast Casinos (the Gold Coast, Suncoast, Orleans and Sam's Town), the limit is usually 10,000 base points multiplied.
But the good news is that some of these properties offer games that can be positive with multipliers at much higher denominations than Stations, including not so ugly deuces at up to $5 at the Fremont and full pay jacks or better (99.5 percent payback) at up to $5 at the California, Gold Coast and Sam's Town.
At some other locals casinos, including the M, South Point and Silverton, base points are worth 0.3 percent. At these casinos, two times points is equal in value to six times points at Station and Boyd properties. South Point doesn't offer point multipliers very often, but when it does, there is no limit on points earned and there are some good games, including $2 not so ugly deuces, to earn them on. Tbe M offers very frequent multipliers of two times on video poker and, in my experience, 12 times on reels. The problem here is that the games are tight, the best return before points being 99.4 percent on Ace$ bonus poker. Silverton has not offered multipliers on video poker for some time but goes to at least 10 times on reels.
These casinos' point systems are all similar in that points can be used for cash back, free play or comps. In some other systems, points can be used only for cash back or free play, and comps are earned separately from points. Such systems are used by several downtown Las Vegas casinos, including the Golden Nugget, D and Four Queens. Also at these casinos, points are generally earned at a rate of one per $10 of coin in and redeemed at a rate of 100 points per dollar, for a rate of 0.1 percent.
Before taking up a casino's offer of a point multiplier, it's a good idea to read the fine print in your mailer or at the players club. Write down your points balance before you start playing, and the number of base points earned. Then check on the machine or a kiosk or at the players club to make sure you got the proper multiplier.
A final word of advice: Some casinos, including South Point, do not look kindly at those who play only on point muliplier days. Over the years, some who made that mistake at South Point found when they returned that their player card no longer worked.
Sunday, November 8, 2015
Video poker progressives: When to start playing, when to stop
Let's begin with the premise that we want to play video poker progressives to make a long-term profit. We've discussed how to determine when a progressive is at break-even, using the Video Poker Scouting Guide, the Video Poker for Winners software or Bob Dancer's rough rule of thumb. The only time we would want to play a game that's below break-even is when incentives supplied by the casino make the total return above 100 percent.
Aside from this basic rule, when to start playing is mostly a matter of personal preference that depends upon a player's answers to these questions:
1. What alternatives are available, in terms of other video poker plays, other gambling opportunities and other uses of time?
2. What is the player's long-term expectation of hourly earnings from playing progressives?
3. How fast is the meter rise of the progressive in question?
4. At what point is there a danger of being shut out of the action by other players?
The first question, I think, is pretty self-explanatory.
As to the second, here is how to figure earnings per hour from a particular play, progressive or not. First, determine the payback of the game. Let's say it's a progressive is at break even. The casino awards points at a with a value of 0.1 percent, but today is offering five times points. Playing today also earns drawing tickets and is helps satisfy the requirements for future offers. Let's guess the value of these benefits at 0.2 percent. So the total return of this game, assuming, as always, playing accurately according to the proper strategy, is 100.7 percent.
A moderately fast player plays about 700 hands an hour. Multiply that or the actual number of hands you play by the amount wagered per hand. For a dollar player, that's $5, or $300 an hour. 0.7 percent of that amount, of $21, is the long-term hourly earning expectation from playing that progressive with the jackpot at the amount upon which we figured the return of the game.
But the nature of progressives is that the jackpot grows. Question 3 refers to the rate of that growth as a percentage of the money played through. Usually, the only way to find this rate is to determine it yourself. For progressives on more than one machine, this must be done when no one else is playing. Simply keep track of how much the meter moves with, say each two hands ($10 on a dollar progressive) or eight hands ($10 on a quarter progressive) played.
The actual rate at which the meter will rise when more than one machine is inolved depends not only on the meter rise, but on how many machines are being played and how fast they are being played. But meter rise is an important factor in comparng progressives. All other things being equal, a progressive with a faster meter rise is more desirable than one with a slower meter rise.
The existence of meter rise means that, in the above example, $21 is only that starting hourly rate for playing that progressive. As it is being played, the hourly rate of return will increase steadily. So it makes sense to start playing when the hourly rate is somewhat below the average you want to make.
My final question, No. 4, can be answered only on the basis of experience with particular progressives, or with accurate information obtained from someone with such experience. Observing once or twice when a particular progressive begings to fill up might not be enough because interested players might not always learn immediately that a progressive has reached their strike point. What you want to figure out is the minimum amount on the meter that is likely to attract a crowd.
That's my basic approach to determing when to start playing. What about when to stop?
If I'm playing a progressive "early," before getting a seat is a concern, I play until I haver something better to do. But at some point, you want to make a commitment to stay until the progressive is hit or you physically can't play any longer.
When to do this is basically a matter of guesswork. The key thing to keep in mind is that there is no way to predict when a progressive will be hit. Progressives are often found at casino bars, and bartenders, trying to be helpful, have told me more than once that, based on their experience, a progressive should be about to pop or is overdue to be hit.
This is nonsense. When the royal comes is determined by a random number generator, which has no knowledge of how long it's been since the last royal flush or what amount is showing on the meter. The liklihood of a player getting a royal flush on a particular hand is exactly the same whether he or she got a royal on the previous hand or hasn't had one in months.
Often a juicy progressive will last longer than one person can stay awake. Having an arrangement to trade of with one or more other players can keep you in the game longer than going it alone. Just be sure you have a complete agreement with your teammates on all relevant terms.
Aside from this basic rule, when to start playing is mostly a matter of personal preference that depends upon a player's answers to these questions:
1. What alternatives are available, in terms of other video poker plays, other gambling opportunities and other uses of time?
2. What is the player's long-term expectation of hourly earnings from playing progressives?
3. How fast is the meter rise of the progressive in question?
4. At what point is there a danger of being shut out of the action by other players?
The first question, I think, is pretty self-explanatory.
As to the second, here is how to figure earnings per hour from a particular play, progressive or not. First, determine the payback of the game. Let's say it's a progressive is at break even. The casino awards points at a with a value of 0.1 percent, but today is offering five times points. Playing today also earns drawing tickets and is helps satisfy the requirements for future offers. Let's guess the value of these benefits at 0.2 percent. So the total return of this game, assuming, as always, playing accurately according to the proper strategy, is 100.7 percent.
A moderately fast player plays about 700 hands an hour. Multiply that or the actual number of hands you play by the amount wagered per hand. For a dollar player, that's $5, or $300 an hour. 0.7 percent of that amount, of $21, is the long-term hourly earning expectation from playing that progressive with the jackpot at the amount upon which we figured the return of the game.
But the nature of progressives is that the jackpot grows. Question 3 refers to the rate of that growth as a percentage of the money played through. Usually, the only way to find this rate is to determine it yourself. For progressives on more than one machine, this must be done when no one else is playing. Simply keep track of how much the meter moves with, say each two hands ($10 on a dollar progressive) or eight hands ($10 on a quarter progressive) played.
The actual rate at which the meter will rise when more than one machine is inolved depends not only on the meter rise, but on how many machines are being played and how fast they are being played. But meter rise is an important factor in comparng progressives. All other things being equal, a progressive with a faster meter rise is more desirable than one with a slower meter rise.
The existence of meter rise means that, in the above example, $21 is only that starting hourly rate for playing that progressive. As it is being played, the hourly rate of return will increase steadily. So it makes sense to start playing when the hourly rate is somewhat below the average you want to make.
My final question, No. 4, can be answered only on the basis of experience with particular progressives, or with accurate information obtained from someone with such experience. Observing once or twice when a particular progressive begings to fill up might not be enough because interested players might not always learn immediately that a progressive has reached their strike point. What you want to figure out is the minimum amount on the meter that is likely to attract a crowd.
That's my basic approach to determing when to start playing. What about when to stop?
If I'm playing a progressive "early," before getting a seat is a concern, I play until I haver something better to do. But at some point, you want to make a commitment to stay until the progressive is hit or you physically can't play any longer.
When to do this is basically a matter of guesswork. The key thing to keep in mind is that there is no way to predict when a progressive will be hit. Progressives are often found at casino bars, and bartenders, trying to be helpful, have told me more than once that, based on their experience, a progressive should be about to pop or is overdue to be hit.
This is nonsense. When the royal comes is determined by a random number generator, which has no knowledge of how long it's been since the last royal flush or what amount is showing on the meter. The liklihood of a player getting a royal flush on a particular hand is exactly the same whether he or she got a royal on the previous hand or hasn't had one in months.
Often a juicy progressive will last longer than one person can stay awake. Having an arrangement to trade of with one or more other players can keep you in the game longer than going it alone. Just be sure you have a complete agreement with your teammates on all relevant terms.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Some not-so-obvious reasons to play video poker progressives
The obvious reason to play video poker progressives is the opportunity they provide to win a jackpot not otherwise available on a game of the same denomination. The typical progressive starts at the normal amount for the full-coin royal flush and goes up from there. Although some casinos cap progressive jackpots, generally there is no limit to how big they can grow.
As we have seen, a big jackpot does not necessarily make a progressive a good long-term play. But for the casual player, it's not irrational to prefer a game that offers the possibility of a big hit even if the paytable shorts some of the smaller hands. That's why many bars have progressives -- often, but not always, with very tight pay tables. Many of the customers there are interested in playing only long enough to get a free drink.
For the player in it for the long term, the main reason to play video poker progressives is that they can offer a better expected value than any other available game. But there are other reasons:
1. Many casinos reduce the points or other benefits earned by playing their best games. This started with 100 percent payback games but at some casinos has spread to games that pay back less. A progressives may have a theoretical return of more than 100 percent as the meter rises but still offer players full points based on the pay table.
2. Similarly, theoretical return is factor in many casinos' formulas regarding mailers and other benefits. It appears that when this is the case, "theo" is based on the pay table with the royal flush at reset. Casinos do not seem to be able to track changes in the return of progresssives as they are being played. So playing a progressive may bring more future free play and other benefits than playing a game with a looser underlying pay table.
3. Advantage video poker players think in terms of the hourly value of a play. Progressives can offer not only some of the highest-value plays, but plays that last longer than other opportunities. A progressive can be attractive for days or weeks before it is hit, whereas other advantage plays, such as point multipliers, may be good only for hours or for a number of base points that can be played in a short time.
4. As a progressive jackpot grows, a sense of excitement often develops. Part of this is due to the fact that the value of playing a progressive increases as the meter rises. The value of playing a static game is always the same (except for point multipliers and other benefits provided by the casino), but each minute playing a progressive is more valuable that the prior minute, until it is hit. At least theoretically, the longer you stay, the more money you make.
It is important to keep in mind that the return of playing a progressive is a long-term concept. Most of the time when you play you are not going to hit the royal, and you are not going to come out ahead. But your results in the long term eventually will reflect the overall expected value of the games you play.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
An introduction to video poker progressives
Bob Dancer, the leading video poker authority and an active player, recently wrote a column for the Las Vegas Advisor (www.lasvegasadvisor.com) about why he does not play video poker progressives. His reasons were mostly matters of personal preference. He did not say that advantage players or other smart players should not play progressives, and many of us do. As time permits, I plan to write several blog posts about video poker and other progressives.
What is a progressive? Simply put, it's a game in which a small part of the money bet by the players goes into one or more growing jackpots. Progressives can be found in slots, video poker, keno (live and video) and table games. The concept has virtually unlimited possible applications in the casino environment.
Why would casinos allow progressives, rather than keep the money going into the jackpot for themselves? First, progressives allow casinos to offer larger than normal prizes to players. A full-coin royal flush in most 25-cent video poker games is $1,000; the royal in a quarter progressive starts at $1,000 and goes up from there, possibly to $2,000, $3,000 or more. Second, progressives, many of which have signs showing the amount of the jackpot, create excitement and attract players as they see the amount they might win growing rapidly.
Sounds like a win-win. The casino offers players more, but with the players' own money feeding the pot. But in reality, casinos often aren't willing to divert even a small percentage money wagered without making up for it -- or more than making up for it. With video poker, progressives are often found on games with substandard pay tables.
For example, a casino might offer as its best non-progressive game 9/6 (full pay) jacks or better, with a long-term maximum payback to players of 99.54 percent. A progressive game might be found on 8/5 jacks or better, with a maximum payback at reset of 97.30 percent. A big progressive jackpot can make this a good play, even a better long-term play than the 9/6 jacks, but you have to know when and how to play it. More about that later.
First, let's talk about how you find video poker progressives. Often they are advertised by electronic signs. These may be simply show dollar amounts or contain other information, such as the donomination of the game. Often these signs apply to a group of machines feeding into a single progressive jackpot. Progressives are also found on idvidual machines, in which case the only way to tell there is a progressive is to look at the pay table. The web site VPFree2 lists and gives locations for the better progressives at many casinos.
Many casinos offer progressives at their bars. Often there is a sign above the bar, or two signs if there are progressives of different denominations (typically quarters and dollars). Individual machines must be checked to see which progressives are on them (often only one denomination per machine). On multi-game machines, sometimes only one game will have the progressive, sometimes more than one or all the games will. Usually the screen that appears after you push the "more games" button will show which games have the progressive, and sometimes the jackpot amount.
At many casinos progressives can be found on the casino floor. Often there are signs, some quite elaborate, above banks of machines with progressives games. But as at the bars, you have to look at the pay tables to find some progressives.
You can go into many casinos and find several video poker progressives at popular denomiations. How can you tell which ones -- if any -- are good plays? A huge jackpot alone does not make a progressive a good play.
First, you must know that there are several versions of most popular video poker games, and that changes in pay tables can have a big effect on the payback of the game. A big factor in finding good video poker progressives is find progressives with good pay tables.
But, as noted earlier, even progressives with relatively bad pay tables, such as 8/5 jacks, can be good plays. A big progressive jackpot can make up for lower return of the underlying game. For example, the break-even point of a 25-cent 9/6 progressive -- the amount of the royal flush that brings the long-term return of the game to 100 percent -- is $1,220. The break-even amount for 8/5 jacks is a whopping $2,166.
The break-even amounts, of most versions of most video poker games can be found in the Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht (RGE Publishing, Ltd.), which also contains almost 200 pay schedules and the maximum return for each game. The return of different games, including progressives, can also be determined using the software Video Poker for Winners, which, like the Scouting Guide, should be used by every serious video poker player.
In the field, you can estimate the return of a progressive game by adding 0.5 percent to the payback of the base game for every 1,000 coins added to the amount of the royal flush. For example, let's say you find a progressive on a $1 15/9 "pseudo not-do-ugly" deuces game with the royal at $6,000. The return on the underlying game is about just over 98.9 percent. The 2,000 coins added to the royal adds about 1 percent to the return of the game, leaving it just short of break-even, not counting the value of points and/or other icentives the casino might provide. According to the Scouting Guide, the actual break-even amount for this game is $6,244.
It's important to keep in mind that the return of any progressive is a long-term theoretical concept. You will get or exceed that return only after hitting your share of royal flushes and other rare hands. This is not likely to happen in one or a few sessions or weeks or months playing progressives. In most video poker games, a royal flush occurs very roughly once every 40,000 hands. For a fast player, that's once every 50 hours. And that's the average. You can and will go multiples of that many hours between royals if you become a serious player.
In the real world, a 9/6 jacks progressive at break-even and an 8/5 jacks progressive of the same denomination at break-even are far from equal. You will lose a lot more money between royals playing the latter than the former. That means you will need more money to play the latter, to survive the deeper negative swings. If you normally play 9/6 jacks for dollars, you might want to consider 8/5 jacks progressives only for 50 cents or less.
Another consideration is that the optimum strategies for different versions of the same games are different. If you normally play 9/6 jacks and want to play an 8/5 jacks progressive, to get even the meager return of the base game, you'll have to learn some changes from 9/6 strategy. In either version of jacks, further strategy changes are needed as the progressive jackpot grows to maximize the return of the game. (The work required to learn these strategy changes is one reason Dancer does not play progressives. He does not usually feel comfortable playing any less than perfect strategy.)
For these reasons, I tend to be very selective about the progressives I monitor and play. I usually won't play for any length of time any progressive where the underlying game pays back much less than 99 percent. I also look for progressives on games with strategies similar to those of the non-progressive games I normally play. One of my main non-progressive games is 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces wild. I'm comfortable playing progressives on 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces, which has a similar strategy. The other progressives I play most are on 16/10 deuces, 9/6 jacks and 8/5 bonus poker (with a stategy similar to that for 9/6 jacks).
There are other factors in deciding which progressives to play, and even more in deciding when to start playing. I'll discuss those in future posts.
What is a progressive? Simply put, it's a game in which a small part of the money bet by the players goes into one or more growing jackpots. Progressives can be found in slots, video poker, keno (live and video) and table games. The concept has virtually unlimited possible applications in the casino environment.
Why would casinos allow progressives, rather than keep the money going into the jackpot for themselves? First, progressives allow casinos to offer larger than normal prizes to players. A full-coin royal flush in most 25-cent video poker games is $1,000; the royal in a quarter progressive starts at $1,000 and goes up from there, possibly to $2,000, $3,000 or more. Second, progressives, many of which have signs showing the amount of the jackpot, create excitement and attract players as they see the amount they might win growing rapidly.
Sounds like a win-win. The casino offers players more, but with the players' own money feeding the pot. But in reality, casinos often aren't willing to divert even a small percentage money wagered without making up for it -- or more than making up for it. With video poker, progressives are often found on games with substandard pay tables.
For example, a casino might offer as its best non-progressive game 9/6 (full pay) jacks or better, with a long-term maximum payback to players of 99.54 percent. A progressive game might be found on 8/5 jacks or better, with a maximum payback at reset of 97.30 percent. A big progressive jackpot can make this a good play, even a better long-term play than the 9/6 jacks, but you have to know when and how to play it. More about that later.
First, let's talk about how you find video poker progressives. Often they are advertised by electronic signs. These may be simply show dollar amounts or contain other information, such as the donomination of the game. Often these signs apply to a group of machines feeding into a single progressive jackpot. Progressives are also found on idvidual machines, in which case the only way to tell there is a progressive is to look at the pay table. The web site VPFree2 lists and gives locations for the better progressives at many casinos.
Many casinos offer progressives at their bars. Often there is a sign above the bar, or two signs if there are progressives of different denominations (typically quarters and dollars). Individual machines must be checked to see which progressives are on them (often only one denomination per machine). On multi-game machines, sometimes only one game will have the progressive, sometimes more than one or all the games will. Usually the screen that appears after you push the "more games" button will show which games have the progressive, and sometimes the jackpot amount.
At many casinos progressives can be found on the casino floor. Often there are signs, some quite elaborate, above banks of machines with progressives games. But as at the bars, you have to look at the pay tables to find some progressives.
You can go into many casinos and find several video poker progressives at popular denomiations. How can you tell which ones -- if any -- are good plays? A huge jackpot alone does not make a progressive a good play.
First, you must know that there are several versions of most popular video poker games, and that changes in pay tables can have a big effect on the payback of the game. A big factor in finding good video poker progressives is find progressives with good pay tables.
But, as noted earlier, even progressives with relatively bad pay tables, such as 8/5 jacks, can be good plays. A big progressive jackpot can make up for lower return of the underlying game. For example, the break-even point of a 25-cent 9/6 progressive -- the amount of the royal flush that brings the long-term return of the game to 100 percent -- is $1,220. The break-even amount for 8/5 jacks is a whopping $2,166.
The break-even amounts, of most versions of most video poker games can be found in the Frugal Video Poker Scouting Guide by Jean Scott and Viktor Nacht (RGE Publishing, Ltd.), which also contains almost 200 pay schedules and the maximum return for each game. The return of different games, including progressives, can also be determined using the software Video Poker for Winners, which, like the Scouting Guide, should be used by every serious video poker player.
In the field, you can estimate the return of a progressive game by adding 0.5 percent to the payback of the base game for every 1,000 coins added to the amount of the royal flush. For example, let's say you find a progressive on a $1 15/9 "pseudo not-do-ugly" deuces game with the royal at $6,000. The return on the underlying game is about just over 98.9 percent. The 2,000 coins added to the royal adds about 1 percent to the return of the game, leaving it just short of break-even, not counting the value of points and/or other icentives the casino might provide. According to the Scouting Guide, the actual break-even amount for this game is $6,244.
It's important to keep in mind that the return of any progressive is a long-term theoretical concept. You will get or exceed that return only after hitting your share of royal flushes and other rare hands. This is not likely to happen in one or a few sessions or weeks or months playing progressives. In most video poker games, a royal flush occurs very roughly once every 40,000 hands. For a fast player, that's once every 50 hours. And that's the average. You can and will go multiples of that many hours between royals if you become a serious player.
In the real world, a 9/6 jacks progressive at break-even and an 8/5 jacks progressive of the same denomination at break-even are far from equal. You will lose a lot more money between royals playing the latter than the former. That means you will need more money to play the latter, to survive the deeper negative swings. If you normally play 9/6 jacks for dollars, you might want to consider 8/5 jacks progressives only for 50 cents or less.
Another consideration is that the optimum strategies for different versions of the same games are different. If you normally play 9/6 jacks and want to play an 8/5 jacks progressive, to get even the meager return of the base game, you'll have to learn some changes from 9/6 strategy. In either version of jacks, further strategy changes are needed as the progressive jackpot grows to maximize the return of the game. (The work required to learn these strategy changes is one reason Dancer does not play progressives. He does not usually feel comfortable playing any less than perfect strategy.)
For these reasons, I tend to be very selective about the progressives I monitor and play. I usually won't play for any length of time any progressive where the underlying game pays back much less than 99 percent. I also look for progressives on games with strategies similar to those of the non-progressive games I normally play. One of my main non-progressive games is 16/10 "not so ugly" deuces wild. I'm comfortable playing progressives on 15/9 "pseudo not so ugly" deuces, which has a similar strategy. The other progressives I play most are on 16/10 deuces, 9/6 jacks and 8/5 bonus poker (with a stategy similar to that for 9/6 jacks).
There are other factors in deciding which progressives to play, and even more in deciding when to start playing. I'll discuss those in future posts.
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Interesting items in gaming news
This one I literally refuse to believe. Blogger David McKee reports on the Las Vegas Advisor web site that MGM Resorts, owner of several major Las Vegas casinos, plans to convert all its remaining 3:2 blackjack games on the Strip to 6:5.
For those not familiar with blackjack, one of the basics of the game is that a player dealt a blackjack -- an ace and ten-value card -- is paid one and a half times his bet, or 3:2.
In the past decade, many casinos have reduced the payout for blackjack to 6:5, starting with single-deck games. Gradually the 6;5 curse has spread to other games, including some as bad as eight-deck shoes with no double after split.
I don't spend much time on the Strip, but unless things have changed drastically in the past year, there are still many good 3:2 games there, especially at MGM properties. Downtown and at the locals casinos, most games still pay the traditional 3:2.
It is sad but true that many ploppies will play a game that pays them $12 for a blackjack on a $10 bet instead of $15, robbing them of about $12 an hour based on the average number of blackjacks received by a player in a moderately fast game. To an extent, 6:5 games have gained acceptance by a segment of the gaming public.
But that is not to say that those who now play 3:2 games, especially for higher stakes, will acquiesce in a change to 6:5. A $100 bettor is being shortchanged $120 an hour by a 6:5 game, and it is hard to believe that that amount of damage won't soon be felt.
If MGM goes through with its horrible idea, it will present a golden opportunity for its competition to tout the availability of its full-pay blackjack games. Explaining the difference between a 3:2 game and a 6:5 game isn't that complicated and should be easily accomplished in newspaper, magazine, billboard and online advertising.
I predict that if MGM goes through with this plan, its blackjack play will drop off precipitously and it will be forced to relent. You read it here first.
The other item of interest is from Vegas Inc., also by way of Las Vegas Advisor. It's about a report commissioned by the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers which suggests that the reduction in slot machine payouts in recent years has led to a decline in slot revenues. The Vegas Inc. story, including a link to the study, can be found at http://vegasinc.com/business/gaming/2015/aug/20/slot-revenue-drops-machines-get-tighter-industry/
The idea that people will play less if games return less is a subject of hot debate in the gaming industry. Some believe that variance -- the ups and downs of a game's return -- far outweigh long-term average return in most players' experience. Others argue that the effect of a reduction in return cannot be masked for very long as players experience less "time on device" for their money.
My opinion is that the first point of view made more sense when gaming was confined mostly to a few resort destination. Now that gaming is widely available, many more people are able to play more often and get a more accurate idea of how quickly their money is likely to disappear in a typical session.
Absent from both the study and the Vegas Inc. article was any mention of the growth of penny slots in recent years. These machines have become very popular despite the fact that they have the lowest payouts. So, at least to some extent, slot players have themselves to blame for the lower returns they are getting.
Both of these news items bring to mind two recurring thoughts of mine concerning the casino business. First, unlike other transactions in a market economy, all aspects of gaming are a zero-sum game. What the players get comes out of the pockets of the casinos and vice-versa. Second, except for the pathetic addicted degenerate gamblers that the industry claims it would never want as customers, no one has to gamble. Casinos are in competition not only with each other but with all other forms of entertainment. Try to take so much from the customer that the enjoyment from gambling is no longer worth the cost, and people will do other things for fun.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the future of gaming as an industry is the constant craving of Wall Street for earnings growth. In this era of gaming saturation, expansion can no longer satisfy this appetite. As the big casino companies try to increase earnings by further squeezing their customers, they will reach a point where they hurt their own bottom line. We may be near that point now.
For those not familiar with blackjack, one of the basics of the game is that a player dealt a blackjack -- an ace and ten-value card -- is paid one and a half times his bet, or 3:2.
In the past decade, many casinos have reduced the payout for blackjack to 6:5, starting with single-deck games. Gradually the 6;5 curse has spread to other games, including some as bad as eight-deck shoes with no double after split.
I don't spend much time on the Strip, but unless things have changed drastically in the past year, there are still many good 3:2 games there, especially at MGM properties. Downtown and at the locals casinos, most games still pay the traditional 3:2.
It is sad but true that many ploppies will play a game that pays them $12 for a blackjack on a $10 bet instead of $15, robbing them of about $12 an hour based on the average number of blackjacks received by a player in a moderately fast game. To an extent, 6:5 games have gained acceptance by a segment of the gaming public.
But that is not to say that those who now play 3:2 games, especially for higher stakes, will acquiesce in a change to 6:5. A $100 bettor is being shortchanged $120 an hour by a 6:5 game, and it is hard to believe that that amount of damage won't soon be felt.
If MGM goes through with its horrible idea, it will present a golden opportunity for its competition to tout the availability of its full-pay blackjack games. Explaining the difference between a 3:2 game and a 6:5 game isn't that complicated and should be easily accomplished in newspaper, magazine, billboard and online advertising.
I predict that if MGM goes through with this plan, its blackjack play will drop off precipitously and it will be forced to relent. You read it here first.
The other item of interest is from Vegas Inc., also by way of Las Vegas Advisor. It's about a report commissioned by the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers which suggests that the reduction in slot machine payouts in recent years has led to a decline in slot revenues. The Vegas Inc. story, including a link to the study, can be found at http://vegasinc.com/business/gaming/2015/aug/20/slot-revenue-drops-machines-get-tighter-industry/
The idea that people will play less if games return less is a subject of hot debate in the gaming industry. Some believe that variance -- the ups and downs of a game's return -- far outweigh long-term average return in most players' experience. Others argue that the effect of a reduction in return cannot be masked for very long as players experience less "time on device" for their money.
My opinion is that the first point of view made more sense when gaming was confined mostly to a few resort destination. Now that gaming is widely available, many more people are able to play more often and get a more accurate idea of how quickly their money is likely to disappear in a typical session.
Absent from both the study and the Vegas Inc. article was any mention of the growth of penny slots in recent years. These machines have become very popular despite the fact that they have the lowest payouts. So, at least to some extent, slot players have themselves to blame for the lower returns they are getting.
Both of these news items bring to mind two recurring thoughts of mine concerning the casino business. First, unlike other transactions in a market economy, all aspects of gaming are a zero-sum game. What the players get comes out of the pockets of the casinos and vice-versa. Second, except for the pathetic addicted degenerate gamblers that the industry claims it would never want as customers, no one has to gamble. Casinos are in competition not only with each other but with all other forms of entertainment. Try to take so much from the customer that the enjoyment from gambling is no longer worth the cost, and people will do other things for fun.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the future of gaming as an industry is the constant craving of Wall Street for earnings growth. In this era of gaming saturation, expansion can no longer satisfy this appetite. As the big casino companies try to increase earnings by further squeezing their customers, they will reach a point where they hurt their own bottom line. We may be near that point now.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
An unwelcome hand pay
To most slot and video poker players, a hand pay is usually a good thing. A hand pay, as its name implies, is a jackpot that must be paid by an employee, usually because it is $1,200 or more and must be reported to the IRS. When a player hits such a jackpot, the machine locks up and usually starts playing music. The screen will alternately flash the amount of the jackpot and the words "call attendant," although in virtually all cases the machine has electronically notified the slot attendant dispatcher of the fortuitous event. At a casino with a competently run slot floor, an employee will arrive within a couple of minutes, punch some data into the machine, ask the player for ID and a Social Security number, then go to work station to prepare the tax forms and get the money. Five minutes or so later, the player is paid, the machine reset, and life goes on as before.
So when is this a bad thing? Well, if you're betting big stakes, especially on a multi-line game (triple play, five play, ten play, fifty play or hundred play), the jackpots can constantly interrupt your play. Sometimes a casino will minimize the stoppages by stationing an employee next to a big player to record all the jackpots and add them up later, issuing one collective tax form. This is called "key to credit."
A jackpot can also be a nuisance if if you're playing a high limit, single line game, such as $5 jacks or better. A straight flush in this game (with max coin bet) pays $1,250, which feels more like upward blip in fortune than a windfall. Stopping play, waiting to be paid and dealing with employees who expect to be tipped is annoying when you don't feel as if if you've really won anything. Some casinos, such as the Rio in Las Vegas, avoid this unhappy situation by reducing the payout for the straight flush to $1.199, which benefits the player by avoiding a hand-pay situation, saves time and work for casino employees, and saves the casino $51 each occurrence. Because the straight flush is quite rare, the reduction in the payback of the game is a minuscule 0.02 percent, in my opinion an acceptable price to pay as a player.
There's one other situation in which a hand pay is a nuisance, and this is especially annoying because it is unnecessary and exploitative. Machines can be set to require a hand pay for amounts less than $1,200, and some casinos do this.
Tonight I was playing at Emerald Island, a small casino in downtown Henderson, a suburb of Las Vegas. This is an extreme low roller environment, billed as "Nevada's only all penny casino." I'm not sure exactly what the slogan means, but the game I play there is 300-coin "not so ugly" nickel deuces on a 10-play machine. So I was betting $15 a hand, three times as much as if I had been playing a $1 single-line game. Anyone who has played at this level knows that you can lose hundreds of dollars in 15 or 20 minutes, and this has often been my experience at Emerald Island.
But soon after sitting down tonight, I got lucky. I was dealt three deuces, and hit the fourth on two lines, for a total of $600. Much to my surprise, the machine locked up and started playing jackpot music.
A waited a few minutes then a few minutes more, getting annoyed that no one showed up. Eventually I tracked someone down and was paid. The employee told me that every jackpot of $400 or more at Emerald Island is a hand pay.
Why would a casino create this extra work for its employees and annoyance for its customers? The only reason I can think of is that management thinks it creates a tipping opportunity. Many customers, including me, do tip on hand pays, particularly of $1,200 or more. I have sometimes tipped on smaller jackpots ($1,000 seems to be a popular threshold) but I was not about to tip for $643 (including the wins on lines other than the two sets of deuces), especially when the service was lousy. On the other hand, to a penny or nickel player, a $400 win might seem like enough of a windfall to warrant a tip, especially in a case of good service and/or an employee known and liked by the customer.
Although I am generally opposed to making unnecessary work for the purpose of generating tips, in Emerald Island's case I understand the policy -- in most cases. But it seems to me that on machines where customers are playing at higher stakes, the jackpot trigger amount should be set higher.
So when is this a bad thing? Well, if you're betting big stakes, especially on a multi-line game (triple play, five play, ten play, fifty play or hundred play), the jackpots can constantly interrupt your play. Sometimes a casino will minimize the stoppages by stationing an employee next to a big player to record all the jackpots and add them up later, issuing one collective tax form. This is called "key to credit."
A jackpot can also be a nuisance if if you're playing a high limit, single line game, such as $5 jacks or better. A straight flush in this game (with max coin bet) pays $1,250, which feels more like upward blip in fortune than a windfall. Stopping play, waiting to be paid and dealing with employees who expect to be tipped is annoying when you don't feel as if if you've really won anything. Some casinos, such as the Rio in Las Vegas, avoid this unhappy situation by reducing the payout for the straight flush to $1.199, which benefits the player by avoiding a hand-pay situation, saves time and work for casino employees, and saves the casino $51 each occurrence. Because the straight flush is quite rare, the reduction in the payback of the game is a minuscule 0.02 percent, in my opinion an acceptable price to pay as a player.
There's one other situation in which a hand pay is a nuisance, and this is especially annoying because it is unnecessary and exploitative. Machines can be set to require a hand pay for amounts less than $1,200, and some casinos do this.
Tonight I was playing at Emerald Island, a small casino in downtown Henderson, a suburb of Las Vegas. This is an extreme low roller environment, billed as "Nevada's only all penny casino." I'm not sure exactly what the slogan means, but the game I play there is 300-coin "not so ugly" nickel deuces on a 10-play machine. So I was betting $15 a hand, three times as much as if I had been playing a $1 single-line game. Anyone who has played at this level knows that you can lose hundreds of dollars in 15 or 20 minutes, and this has often been my experience at Emerald Island.
But soon after sitting down tonight, I got lucky. I was dealt three deuces, and hit the fourth on two lines, for a total of $600. Much to my surprise, the machine locked up and started playing jackpot music.
A waited a few minutes then a few minutes more, getting annoyed that no one showed up. Eventually I tracked someone down and was paid. The employee told me that every jackpot of $400 or more at Emerald Island is a hand pay.
Why would a casino create this extra work for its employees and annoyance for its customers? The only reason I can think of is that management thinks it creates a tipping opportunity. Many customers, including me, do tip on hand pays, particularly of $1,200 or more. I have sometimes tipped on smaller jackpots ($1,000 seems to be a popular threshold) but I was not about to tip for $643 (including the wins on lines other than the two sets of deuces), especially when the service was lousy. On the other hand, to a penny or nickel player, a $400 win might seem like enough of a windfall to warrant a tip, especially in a case of good service and/or an employee known and liked by the customer.
Although I am generally opposed to making unnecessary work for the purpose of generating tips, in Emerald Island's case I understand the policy -- in most cases. But it seems to me that on machines where customers are playing at higher stakes, the jackpot trigger amount should be set higher.
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