Differences between gambling and real life

In real life, if something happens again and again, we assume it's going to keep happening, and almost always we're right. The sun came up in the morning two days ago, yesterday and today. We can be all but certain it will come up tomorrow.

In gambling, that's often not the case. In blackjack, we can hit 16 against the dealer's 10 and bust, and do it again and bust, and do it again and bust. Yet the right play, for a non-card counter, is to do it every time. In the long run, the player will come out very slightly ahead by always hitting the 16.

Why can't we learn from the experience of hitting the 16 and busting again and again? Basically because gambling is governed by the mathematics of random events, not by the laws of nature.

The first thing we must understand is the meaning of "random." Many people seem to think that random means scattered all over the place, without any pattern. Not necessarily. Random outcomes can include significant streaks or bunching of results.

So even though hitting the 16 will produce enough positive results to make it worthwhile, it can -- and will -- result in the player busting two, threee, four and more times consecutively. It seems to be stupid to continue such a futile move, but the mathematics of gambling asserts itself over thousands and thousands of trials, not over half a dozen hands of blackjack.

As a result of not understanding this principle, gamblers often try to get a different result by making changes that cannot affect the outcome of the game or can affect it only negatively.

An acqaintance of mine, a video poker player, does this by pulling or inserting her player's card when things are going bad, by swtiching games and/or denomination played, and by changing the number of coins she bets. (One time I saw her hit a royal on a less-than-full-coin bet, which cost her a lot of money and some embarrassment.)

Here's why these things don't work: The part of the machine that deals the cards doesn't know if a player's card is inserted or not. By not using your player's card every time you play on a machine, you're just denying yourself comps and other casino marketing benefits. Switching games or denominations isn't going to alter your long-term results. You should always play what for you is the best game available at the denomination that best fits your bankroll. Given the promotions available on a particular day, there is usually only one game and one denomination that will give a particular player the best long-term results. And, there is almost never a good reason to bet less than the maximum on video poker, because of the huge penalty on a royal hit with less than maximum coin. And again, the part of the machine that deals the cards has no idea how many coins have been bet.

Another way in which gambling differs from most other aspects of life is the relationship between effort and result. In gambling, practice and study do pay off, but only in a long run measured in months or years. An expert video poker player can lose session after session while a ploppie sitting next to him keeps hitting winning hands.

It's not hard to accept that gambling is subject to ups and downs in the short run, but the losing streaks can be lengthy and brutal. And there isn't a lot you can do about it, except to let time and the mathematics take their course.

If you've ever played golf, you might have experienced a similar level of futility.